When a 48% polling lead became an actual 11.9%? My most profitable political wager of all time up to eight years ago was a spread bet that Ken would get less than 50% in first preference votes in the first London Mayoral contest. For all the signs were that Ken, then standing as an independent, was going to overwhelm his opponents by a staggering margin and many took it as read that he would get 50% on the first round….
This is the ad that is running tonight on TV stations throughout Pennsylvania as Hillary seeks to ensure she secures the win in the primary tomorrow that will help keep her in the race. The latest polling is here. Mike Smithson
The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and reports a big reversal on last month. The figures which, unlike the chart from the paper, has comparisons with the last published ICM poll are: CON 39% (-4): LAB 34 (+2): LD 19% (+1) So instead of a poll suggesting a substantial Tory overall majority we are now back in hung parliament territory with Labour and the Tories competing for top spot on seats. This polling change could not…
Can Hillary do well enough to stay in the race? We are finally there after what has seemed a lifetime since the last primary. The voters of Pennsylvania go to the polls tomorrow for what could determine whether Hillary’s can still entertain her dream of becoming the first female President. This is a closed election which means that unlike many other states only those who are registered as Democrats can take part – a factor that should help the former…
It’s 53-47 after second preferences This week’s evening Standard YouGov poll on the London Mayor battle and shows a a small increase in Boris’s lead on first preferences. The figures are with changes on last week – BORIS 44% (-1): KEN 37% (-2): PADDICK 12% (+2) After second preferences the lead is 6%. This should provide some comfort for the Tory camp following a week a heavy exposure amongst Londoners for the campaign. UPDATE Meanwhile I have been in contact…
What do we think of Jackie Ashley’s analysis? In her Monday Guardian column this morning Jackie Ashley speculates over what could happen if Brown loses the key vote on the abolition of the 10% tax rate. She writes: “Let us be quite clear. If the rebellion over the 10p tax rate abolition continues to gather pace and the rebels hold their nerve, they can get rid of Gordon Brown as early as next week. The Tories, it seems, will line…
Andrea examines the results as Italy moves from Prodi II to Berlusconi III So Silvio is back. Last week-end’s Italian elections saw Berlusconi’s coalition winning by a convincing margin: 9.3% for the Senate and 9.2% for the Chamber of Deputies. The final result is at the high end of figures showed by polls 2 weeks ago. It also guarantees a comfortable majority for Berlusconi at the Senate. During the pre-election discussions, there was some debate on whether he would get…
Was getting a coronation the political achievement of the decade? As another pollster, Populus, reports a double digit deficit for Labour let’s consider this morning the remarkable campaign a year ago that saw Gordon become his party’s leader and PM without having to face a contest. For in the year before the “handover” a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the party was already doing. The results…