The 11/8 on more than 43% seems like value bet As can probably be gathered from the content of recent posts I am quite long on Boris. My reading of the polls it that he stands a very good chance of winning on Friday and I’ve been betting accordingly. The only circumstance I can foresee of him not making it is if there is a very high turnout. One senior Labour spinner told me yesterday that he thought Ken would…
Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists? Reproduced above is part of a press release issued this morning by Team Ken in what will probably be the last big move of the campaign. It consists of an attack on the planned YouGov poll that will be published tomorrow as well as the more detailed case of the complaint against the pollster that has been made to the Market Research Society. The objectives appear to be to further smear YouGov,…
Can Labour contain the damage with an ultra-short campaign? To all those outside London who have been saying that we have been over-doing the Boris-Ken contest can I say three words – Crewe and Nantwich. For after the London result on Friday the main UK domestic story will be the by election in the Cheshire seat. This site follows the key action and nothing else will happen in the coming months that will provide such a good test of opinion…
Monday saw a massive 115,794 page down-loads I’ve just got the traffic figures for the site for yesterday when there were 115,794 separate page downloads – only the second time we have broken through the 100k mark. The last time was that Saturday in October when Gordon called off the election. Also April has already become the site’s busiest ever month even though there is still a day and a bit to go. Total page down-loads are 1,667,234 which exceeds…
“16% of those who think they are registered aren’t” In its final Mayoral poll MORI agreed to a suggestion of mine and asked whether those interviewed were actually on the electoral register. They found that only 92% were. Now a report from the Electoral Commission suggests that the proportion not on the register could be much higher than that. The pollster NOP was commissioned and it found that 16% of people who thought they were on the electoral roll were…
Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race. And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above – what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson….
Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend – a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election. To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:- ComRes C40:…
The only detail at the moment is from Andrew Grice’s blog at the paper. He writes: “If Gordon Brown was hoping that the row over his decision to abolish the 10p lower rate of income tax would not damage Labour, he’ll be very disappointed by the latest monthly ComRes survey for The Independent. The Tories have doubled their lead since last month from seven to 14 points, the biggest since ComRes began polling for the paper in September 2006.” That’s…