Will it be white men who decide Pennsylvania?

Will it be white men who decide Pennsylvania?

Can Hillary do well enough to stay in the race? We are finally there after what has seemed a lifetime since the last primary. The voters of Pennsylvania go to the polls tomorrow for what could determine whether Hillary’s can still entertain her dream of becoming the first female President. This is a closed election which means that unlike many other states only those who are registered as Democrats can take part – a factor that should help the former…

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Boris lead moves up to 7% with YouGov

Boris lead moves up to 7% with YouGov

It’s 53-47 after second preferences This week’s evening Standard YouGov poll on the London Mayor battle and shows a a small increase in Boris’s lead on first preferences. The figures are with changes on last week – BORIS 44% (-1): KEN 37% (-2): PADDICK 12% (+2) After second preferences the lead is 6%. This should provide some comfort for the Tory camp following a week a heavy exposure amongst Londoners for the campaign. UPDATE Meanwhile I have been in contact…

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Should you be betting on an early Brown departure?

Should you be betting on an early Brown departure?

What do we think of Jackie Ashley’s analysis? In her Monday Guardian column this morning Jackie Ashley speculates over what could happen if Brown loses the key vote on the abolition of the 10% tax rate. She writes: “Let us be quite clear. If the rebellion over the 10p tax rate abolition continues to gather pace and the rebels hold their nerve, they can get rid of Gordon Brown as early as next week. The Tories, it seems, will line…

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So Silvio is back….

So Silvio is back….

Andrea examines the results as Italy moves from Prodi II to Berlusconi III So Silvio is back. Last week-end’s Italian elections saw Berlusconi’s coalition winning by a convincing margin: 9.3% for the Senate and 9.2% for the Chamber of Deputies. The final result is at the high end of figures showed by polls 2 weeks ago. It also guarantees a comfortable majority for Berlusconi at the Senate. During the pre-election discussions, there was some debate on whether he would get…

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How did Gord become PM with this 06/07 polling baggage?

How did Gord become PM with this 06/07 polling baggage?

Was getting a coronation the political achievement of the decade? As another pollster, Populus, reports a double digit deficit for Labour let’s consider this morning the remarkable campaign a year ago that saw Gordon become his party’s leader and PM without having to face a contest. For in the year before the “handover” a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the party was already doing. The results…

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Now Populus reports a double digit Labour deficit

Now Populus reports a double digit Labour deficit

Are we now heading for a Conservative majority? As well as the Ken-Boris survey there’s also a Populus poll on national voting intentions in the Sunday Mirror. This records the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster nearly three weeks ago CON 40% (+1): LAB 30% (-3): LD 19% (+2) Looking at previous surveys from the firm on UKPollingreport these are the worst figures for Labour that we have ever seen. In February there was a…

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Ken moves ahead in non-BPC poll

Ken moves ahead in non-BPC poll

Will the pollster perform better than it did in Scotland? A new London survey tonight from a firm that is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council provides a big boost to Ken as he seeks to defend his mayoralty. The firm, MRUK, found first preference figures of Ken 45%: Boris 44%: Paddick 9%. After second preferences are taken into account Boris and Ken are on 50:50. The survey took place from April 7th to the 14th…

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London: The Pollsters vs The Punters vs PoliticsHome

London: The Pollsters vs The Punters vs PoliticsHome

Which is the best guide to the likely outcome? Just twelve days to go before more than five million Londoners get the chance to vote in an election that is being widely regarded as a proxy for the general election. Because it is in the capital and because of the massive national media coverage the winner of Britain’s single election will have an enormous impact on the overall political environment. The stakes are enormous: a Conservative win with Boris Johnson…

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