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In current circumstances the Tories winning the London mayoralty next year seems as likely as Boris Johnson telling the truth however Jeremy Corbyn might just make the former possible if he stands in next year’s London mayoral election. Normally I would think a Trump supporting, Liz Truss backing candidate would do very badly in London but the Tories shamefully changed the London mayoral voting system from supplementary vote system to first past the post from 2024 onwards, so it is…

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It used to be that losing your deposit in a parliamentary by-election was seen as a bad sign for the future of party. To save it a candidate needs to secure 5% or more of the overall vote. In Thursday’s by-elections the LDs lost their deposits in two of the seats but in the one that mattered they won with 29% swing over the Tories. They came out of Thursday looking strong. Meanwhile, Labour lost its deposit in Somerton but…

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As expected the LDs take Somerton by big margin LAB did flip Selby on big swing As was not expected judging by the betting markets the Tories held on to the Hillingdon seat in the overnight by-elections in what surely is a big blow to Labour. At this stage before a general election Starmer’s party should have been taking seats like this with some ease. This was also in Greater London where the party generally does well. Somerton and Frome…

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And LAB close to 90% in the other two

Somerton, Selby and Uxbridge are the first Westminster by-election defences that Sunak has had to face since becoming leader and PM nine months ago. The other by-elections to be held have been in safe LAB seats. That the Tories are in for a tough night is almost priced and if by any chance the party managed to retain one of the three seats that would surely underpin the leader’s position right through to the general election. This must take place…

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Because I’m almost a local – I live about a mile and a half from the constituency – I’m getting a fair number of questions asking for my thoughts on the possible by-election in Mid-Beds. This is, of course, the seat where Nadine Dorries has been MP since GE2010 and the person who announced on June 9th that she was quitting as an MP with “immediate effect”. That was in expectation that she was being given a peerage in Johnson’s…

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This was bound to happen given the appalling national polling collapse that Sunak’s Tories have seen – the betting money is going on three Tory by-election losses on Thursday. The one thing that’s limiting betting activity is that the odds on the Tories losing Somerton are so so tight that risking £100 to win £2 is not an attractive proposition. These, we should all remind ourselves, will be the first by-election defences by the Tories since Sunak became leader. Mike…

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