Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Local Election Round Up Last week’s local elections were Labour’s worst since 1976/1977. The Party finished up 20% behind the Conservatives, in terms of projected national vote share, and suffered a net loss of 334 seats, from a low base. Taking into account some Labour gains, against the trend, the Party lost nearly one third of the seats it was defending. Some of the results were striking. For instance, the Conservatives outpolled Labour by 1,800 across the ten authorities of…

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Spread markets point to a Tory majority of 40

Spread markets point to a Tory majority of 40

A 24 seat shift to Cameron’s party in just ten days The spread firm, SportingIndex, has just put up its new general election commons seats spreads following the YouGov poll overnight suggesting that Labour are on just 23% – a massive 26% behind. When we last looked at this, a week last Tuesday and two days before polling, I posed the question – “Will punters believe in a Tory majority after Thursday?”. Well they have and the Tory spread has…

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Do we want even more regular YouGov polls?

Do we want even more regular YouGov polls?

Has the Sun switched from MORI following the Mayoral outcome? A key thing that polling does, apart from to give some idea about the outcome of a future general election, is to help create the environment in which the political process operates. As we have seen so often the pressure on party leaders can be driven by poor polling numbers. For there’s little doubt that shocking polls for Labour, like the one in this morning’s Sun, can affect the whole…

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YouGov reports a 26% Tory lead

YouGov reports a 26% Tory lead

Appalling news for Labour from the pollster that got Boris-Ken right In what is perhaps the most sensational opinion poll for decades the pollster that got the London Mayoral election spot on, YouGov is tonight reporting a 26% lead for the Conservatives. The shares are CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17% The last survey from the firm had an 18% Tory lead so this is a very big shift upwards. Clearly Gordon Brown and Labour have had an appalling week…

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ABC News says “dream ticket” under discussion

ABC News says “dream ticket” under discussion

The main political story on ABC News this afternoon is that “..intermediaries” have resumed discussing the possibility of an Obama-Clinton “dream team” ticket…”. A former top Bill Clinton aide and now ABC News’ chief Washington correspondent, George Stephanopolous, said: “I think it’s very much a possibility and there are others around Sen. Clinton, other top Democrats who think the strongest ticket would be a joint ticket..There are intermediaries discussing this very scenario” He went on:”..Right now Sen. Obama is probably…

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Would Tessa give Cameron a run for his money?

Would Tessa give Cameron a run for his money?

Is this the woman who could turn Labour’s fortunes around? I don’t claim to understand the intricacies of Labour party internal politics but after pondering over the past few days I have come up with a couple of names of people I believe could turn round voters views of the party and make the next general election less of the disaster than it looks at the moment. What’s needed is a different style and a different tone and a leader…

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What could Hillary demand for giving up?

What could Hillary demand for giving up?

Could clearing her massive campaign debts be part of a deal? In the aftermath of the Tuesday’s primaries speculation has started on how the Obama-Clinton contest might end and whether we could see a negotiated deal between the two of them. An experienced political operator who has been involved in such an arrangement before, Dan Conley, has a must read piece in Salon in which he suggests three things that Hillary could demand to pull out. Firstly there’s cash. The…

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Are punters right about Crewe & Nantwich?

Are punters right about Crewe & Nantwich?

Is a Tory victory a near certainty? Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2. Betfair has seen a big rush to get on the Tories and, as I write, the best you can get is 0.34/1. Another bookmaker has 4/9. But is punter confidence in the Tories justified –…

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