Populus reports its biggest ever Tory lead The May Populus survey for the Times is out this evening and shows a small increase in the Tory lead compared with what the firm reported a fortnight ago. The figures are with changes on that survey – CON 40%(nc): LAB 29%(-1): LD 19%(nc). So yet another poll is showing the Tories in the 40s with Labour in the 20s. This, I think, is Labour’s worst ever deficit from Populus. The fieldwork took…
Mayor Competition Results – how did you do? Congratulations to Andy Cooke, one of pb’s leading analysts and number-crunchers, on a clear victory in the PB London Mayor prediction competition. Andy’s overall score was just 5.07 and he also had the best first preference score of 4.59. Richard Stoneman was runner-up with a score of 6.87 while Dave Hague took third with 7.39. Fourth-placed Jack Peterson on 7.71 had the best final vote predictions, being just 0.12 away from the…
What do you think of the recent market moves? I have just three positions on the Democratic race. One my 50/1 and 33/1 long-shot bets from 2005 and 2006 that Barack will go all the way. Two bets at an average of 5/1 that Hillary will get the nomination Three bets on her at an average of 6/1 that she will get the V-P slot. The closer this gets to the convention the greater the chance she has of making…
Some depressing words for Labour supporters in Polly Toynbee’s Tuesday Guardian column this morning. After having this to say about May 22nd “..for the Conservatives are no longer the stupid party. Watch them win the Crewe and Nantwich byelection, easy…” she goes on:- “…It is Labour that has become the stupid party – dumb, directionless, depressing. That’s why the voters gave them that 24% sucker punch: it wasn’t about ideology, it was about basic political competence. As the Conservatives unfurl…
How will the prices look on Wednesday? I’m just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break. Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus. Mike Smithson
One thing that Friday’s London mayoral result showed was that I term “The Golden Rule of British Polling” still applied. For based on the results of the last four general elections and all three London Mayoral races the most accurate poll has always been the one showing Labour (Ken in 2000) in the least favourable position in relation to the Tories. The rule was the key factor that determined my betting in last week’s election and in the end I…
Is this really “public service broadcasting”? I started ranting about this on election night itself and my anger has not subsided even though that was three nights ago. This is simply unacceptable. The BBC cannot expect to receive licence fee income if this is how it interprets its public service remit over the reporting of the democratic process. We need an assurance now from the Corporation that a totally different approach will be in place for the 2009 Euro and…
There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election. Mike Smithson