Mail on Sunday My assessment: the Tories have a 90% chance of winning We’ve now got more information about the Mail on Sunday’s ICM poll on the Crewe and Nantwich by election and it’s clear that the situation is even worse for Labour than was being reported last night. The panel above is reproduced from the paper. For the Tory by election poll margin of 4% would have been 12% but for ICM’s “sprial of silence” adjustment. This is a…
But how much can we trust single constituency polls? According to Iain Dale an ICM poll of 1000 voters in Crewe & Nantwich is suggesting that the Tories are on target for their first by-election gain since 1982. The figures are:- CON 43% Lab 39%: LD 16% Clearly this is a very good pointer for Cameron’s party and the real significance is that it is his party, and not the traditional by election Kings, the Lib Dems who are seen…
  Picture of Obama rally in Portland by Photoscott  Does Clinton stand a chance of winning Oregon? Following her triumph in Pennsylvania on the 22nd April and an effective tie in Guam on May 3rd, but having suffered difficult headlines since last Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary Clinton will need to build momentum quickly to prevent a hemorrhaging of Superdelegates to Barack Obama. She has the potential to rally her flagging campaign with solid wins in West…
Are Labour’s chances as bad as the media is suggesting? This weekend hundreds and maybe thousands of activists from the main parties will be heading to Crewe and Nantwich for a big couple of days of campaigning ahead of the critical by election a week on Thursday. The weather’s good, the constituency’s road and rail links are excellent and, most of all, Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have each got something to prove in this key test of…
Local Election Round Up Last week’s local elections were Labour’s worst since 1976/1977. The Party finished up 20% behind the Conservatives, in terms of projected national vote share, and suffered a net loss of 334 seats, from a low base. Taking into account some Labour gains, against the trend, the Party lost nearly one third of the seats it was defending. Some of the results were striking. For instance, the Conservatives outpolled Labour by 1,800 across the ten authorities of…
A 24 seat shift to Cameron’s party in just ten days The spread firm, SportingIndex, has just put up its new general election commons seats spreads following the YouGov poll overnight suggesting that Labour are on just 23% – a massive 26% behind. When we last looked at this, a week last Tuesday and two days before polling, I posed the question – “Will punters believe in a Tory majority after Thursday?”. Well they have and the Tory spread has…
Has the Sun switched from MORI following the Mayoral outcome? A key thing that polling does, apart from to give some idea about the outcome of a future general election, is to help create the environment in which the political process operates. As we have seen so often the pressure on party leaders can be driven by poor polling numbers. For there’s little doubt that shocking polls for Labour, like the one in this morning’s Sun, can affect the whole…
Appalling news for Labour from the pollster that got Boris-Ken right In what is perhaps the most sensational opinion poll for decades the pollster that got the London Mayoral election spot on, YouGov is tonight reporting a 26% lead for the Conservatives. The shares are CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17% The last survey from the firm had an 18% Tory lead so this is a very big shift upwards. Clearly Gordon Brown and Labour have had an appalling week…