politicalbetting.com

Starmer needs to give the electorate positive reasons to vote Labour Yesterday’s Times published some YouGov polling which shows A majority of Labour voters are repelled by the Conservatives rather than attracted by Sir Keir Starmer, polling finds. About 75 per cent of those switching from the Tories to Labour say their main motivation is unhappiness with the government rather than enthusiasm for opposition plans. Conservative voters are barely more enthused by Rishi Sunak, with 45 per cent saying they…

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The above Tweet came out yesterday but still Dorries remains. I’m not convinced that she will quit as an MP this side of the election. Her initial “resignation” was in the expectation that she was due to be elevated to the House of Lords in Johnson’s resignation honours. It got stuck when the Lords Committee that monitors these things did not back it. In the meantime, the opposition parties are out on the campaign trail in Mid Bedfordshire in the…

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In last week’s by-elections, there was one result that stood out for being very different from the rest. This was the Tory hold in Johnson’s old seat of Hillingdon. Ever since I have wondered whether the Tory campaign there will be a model of what we will see when the general election actually happens. The blues focused on the expansion of ULEZ – the scheme initially brought in by Mayor Johnson to ensure that those who drive non-compliant cars should…

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On the face of it this could look like an attempt by Labour to help the LDs by encouraging tactical voting. But I don’t think so. All parties categorise seats into the ones that get the main focus and those that don’t and inevitably those lists are going to be written down somewhere. But you can see how the LDs would use it. They could present it as Labour Party backers in the listed seats being told that it is…

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I come to these betting numbers once again to underline the fact the perceptions of the general election outcome remain largely unchanged. The money continues to go on a LAB majority. This is not a bet that I have made directly – my wager is to lay an overall LAB majority.because I think that that offers the best values. Can I underline that bets are not predictions but statements of value. The current odds on s Lab majority are overstated….

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No doubt the party’s other general election targets are getting the same treatment and this chart will feature in dozens of leaflets right up to the general election. There is also little doubt that the seats will have similar profiles having chalked up big REMAIN votes in the referendum and a have a disproportionate proportion of graduates in their electorates. A fading Tory government led by an unpopular PM is exactly the right backcloth for the third party to flourish….

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She had to go. You simply cannot have the CEO of a bank unable to understand that if a journalist sat next to you at dinner asks you about a live story involving confidential details about a customer of the bank, the only possible response is “I can’t talk to you about that. Mmm, isn’t the soufflé delicious.” Especially not when in a few days time you will be presenting the bank’s results and therefore are currently in possession of…

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