What is it that repeatedly makes them choose losers? I am coming to the conclusion that there is something in the DNA of those who manage to climb the greasy poll to become MPs that makes them such terrible judges when it comes to who should lead their parties. Can anybody explain why 313 current members of the Parliamentary Labour Party should have signed Gordon’s nomination papers to give him a free run last year when there was so much…
Is this the beginning of Gordon’s final days as PM? The Sunday Times is reporting this evening that David Miliband is preparing to throw his hat into the ring in a leadership contest to “save new Labourâ€, having told friends that he is prepared to stand if sufficient backbenchers turn against the PM. The article continues: “…senior Labour insiders claim that at least half the cabinet have privately concluded that Brown cannot win the next general election.. Among the ministers…
I’m in London visting my two grand-daughters – Esther aged ten weeks and Julia aged five months – and won’t be posting for the rest of the day. Please continue discussions here. Mike Smithson
Would the government have a better chance if Gordon stood aside? The above, the main lead in the Guardian, is typical of what is in many of the papers this morning as they get their first chance to analyse the Crewe & Nantwich result and pose questions for the future. Labour is in serious trouble facing, in my view, a Tory landslide that could match that of Blair’s in 1997. But is there a solution? Would Gordon taking early retirement…
Why I believe that Gordon is Safe It is always dangerous to write about the internal culture of a political party which you are not a member of. Nonetheless, I will stick my neck out and say that I expect Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election. That may seem a strange thing to say, on the morning after Labour’s sixth worst by-election result against the Conservatives, and when the Conservatives lead by anything up to 20% in…
Recapping the first by-election thread? While the inquest on Crewe and Nantwich continues it is perhaps worth looking back to what people were saying about the by-election on Friday April 18th when news of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s death became known. The thread is here and to me the most striking feature was the way those of a known Tory allegiance were trying to dampen expectations. I probably overstated the Lib Dem prospects and one or two of the serious betting contributors…
Why C&N gives me the confidence to come off the fence In assessing the significance of the Crewe and Nantwich result for the next general election ask yourself this – when was the last time that the Tories took a seat off Labour in a by-election and then failed to win the subsequent general election? The answer is Leyton in January 1965 which was held in the unique circumstances of a vacancy being created to provide a Commons seat for…
There’s been some movement on the spread markets over the past twenty four hours. These are the latest spreads from Spreadfair: CON 345.5-354: LAB 228.1-234.5: 45-46.9 So the mid-point Tory level is just under 350 which points to a majority of 48/50 seats. It will be interesting to see how the actual C&N result affects the markets. Mike Smithson