Is my 20/1 bet on the Lib Dems good value? With all the focus on David Davis not much attention is being given to Henley a week on Thursday where the Tories are hoping to hold Boris Johnson’s old seat by a reasonable margin. The betting has reflected the general view that the Tories are a near certainty. The best you can get from a traditional bookie is 1/25. They are offering just 7/1 on the Lib Dems which is…
Nearly three electors in five say they would vote for him A new Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Independent this morning has what seem to be contradictory conclusions over David Davis’s move last week. On the one hand the national survey found that respondents would give him strong support if they were able to vote in the forthcoming by-election. But on the issue of whether he was right or not there’s a different conclusion. In the poll carried out from…
Why has Barack hired her former campaign chief? The big story in the White House race tonight is the hiring by Obama of Hillary’s former campaign head, Patti Solis Doyle as chief of staff to the campaign’s eventual vice presidential nominee. My initial reaction was that this was a clear sign that we are being prepared for Hillary going on the ticket. The New York Observer blog, reproduced above, takes the opposite view. Ben Smith of Politico also takes a…
Would Sebelius on the ticket be the ultimate insult? It’s not surprising, given the nature of the primary contest, that of the top three in the Democratic VP betting two are women. Hillary (4/1), of course, is still up there and there continues to be a lot being said on her behalf. Given that this does not need to be announced until the end of August it would be easier by then for Barack to choose his former opponent without…
Can Cameron rely on those who didn’t vote last time? In September 2007, when Labour was riding high and Gordon could do no wrong, I questioned several times whether the poll shares we were seeing were robust because so much of the “new” support for the party was coming from people who had not voted at the 2005 general election. As anybody with experience of on the ground campaigning knows the most reliable electors are those who have a record…
A guest article by David Herdson So, it’s over. After over 16 months of formal candidacy and eight years or so as the Democratic front-runner for this nomination, Hillary’s finally bowed out of the race. She put up a strong fight, winning many millions of votes in the primaries and raising vast amounts of money. Unfortunately for her, Obama raised even vaster amounts and concentrated his votes more effectively (especially in the caucuses). That provides the Democrats with a very…
Mail on Sunday …and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand? An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial. The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote…
Labour nudge up two points from their record low The second of the night’s opinion polls, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, shows a small improvement for Labour on the last survey from the firm at the end of May. The latest figures with changes on that poll are: CON 47% (nc): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (nc). The fieldwork took place on Thursday and Friday – important because it was on Thursday that David Davis made his big announcement….