Are Labour’s backers going on strike? Everywhere I go and almost everybody I talk to seems to have their own theory on what will bring Gordon’s tenure at Number 10 to an end. “It’s going to be David Miliband who’ll put the party ahead of his prospects”; “It’s going to be on health grounds”; and today it’s the suggestion that it will be pressure from party donors that will finally determine the issue. This was from Rachel Sylvestor in today’s…
Is it going to fill a gap in the market? The new monthly glossy magazine, Total Politics, was launched at a glitzy party in Westminster last night and has the potential to become a must read for all those interested in the mechanics of elections and predicting political outcomes. The main backer, Michael Ashcroft, and Iain Dale believe there is a real gap in the market for a publication that takes this area of activity seriously and I am sure…
Has Brown the strength to reclaim the word STRONG? It’s hard to credit it now but in those heady days of the final week of September 2007 Labour party spinners were putting it about that their polling had discovered a new type of voter that they termed “Gordon Conservatives”. These were people, it was claimed, who had voted Tory in 2005 but had then decided to support Brown’s changed Labour party On September 24th 2007 Ben Brogan reported: “Remember the…
Why there’ll be no more bets on this by me With most political betting I like to feel that for most of the time I’m ahead of the game and that if I call an outcome wrongly then I’ll be quick enough to recognise it and get out smartly at minimal cost. The area that completely foxes me is what will be the big betting area in the next couple of months – who will be Barack Obama’s and John…
The money goes on a poor Henley performance Given that this is the final Sunday before the Henley by election the only active market on Thursday’s outcome has been on whether Labour will lose its deposit. The chart shows the betting odds expressed as an implied probability. The day started with the price at 1/2, then the market was suspended only to be re-opened an hour or so later at 2/5 and then to tighten further to 1/3 by the…
Unregistered BPIX puts the Tories on 49% The start of Brown’s first anniversary week sees more disappointing poll news – this time from BPIX – the polling firm that is not registered with the British Polling Council and whose website consists of just one page that has been “under construction” for several years. The survey, in the Mail on Sunday, is the first from the pollster since October last year so there’s no real point in showing comparisons. Today’s figures,…
Given the fact that we had only announced the event the previous week it was quite pleasing to see about 40 turning up for all or part of the evening. As I hope the pictures show the venue – the terrace of the National Liberal Club – was superb and the food was really excellent. This was the first time that we had had a sit-down element for the meal and this worked well. The informality of a barbecue meant…
Has the Culture secretary touched a raw nerve over Shami? The most striking thing about the Burnham-Davis-Shami Chakrabarti row is that it has opened up what appears to be a massive gender divide. Women seem to be judging the culture secretary’s comments much more severely than men and it appears to have struck a real chord with many of them. This has become an area of debate into which male politicians and commentators should enter only at their peril. Leaving…