Is it just recently or have you thought so all along? It’s becoming very difficult to find anybody any more who still says positive things about Gordon Brown’s electability. One after another in recent months former great supporters of the ex-Chancellor have come to the same conclusion about the man they cheered into Downing Street at the end of June last year. But when did you start to realise that he did not have it? When did you conclude that…
How much goodwill is squandered when you over-egg the pudding? A week before the Henley by election I reproduced the above mass email sent to Lub Dem activists because I believed it was behind sharp moves in the betting prices and that all that text highlighted in red suggested that the party had some game-changing information that was about to be revealed. Well what came out the following day did not match the billing and I think that this raises…
I found this video by David Plouffe impressive – upbeat yet realisitic about the challenges ahead. It’s also a good guide for those who are betting either way on this race. Latest “Next President” betting. Latest “Winning Party” betting. Mike Smithson
Will disaffected Hillary supporters now back Barack? By far the biggest question mark that’s been hanging over the Democratic party’s chances in November’s election has been the extent to which fiercely loyal Hillary supporters will switch their support to the presumed nominee. Poll and after poll has shown that a significant proportion of Clinton backers, particularly women in the older age groups, have found it difficult to accept the outcome and have said they would give their votes to John…
The Brown anniversary surveys come thick and fast After a by-election and two new national opinion polls to digest there’s another new survey tonight – by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent. This was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday so is the most up-to-date of the polls. The shares are with changes on the last ComRes poll a fortnight ago are: CON 46% (+2): LAB 25% (-1): LD 18% (+1). Both the Tory share, 46%, and the 21% margin over Labour…
The first national opinion poll to be published from Ipsos-MORI since the end of April is just out and shows the Tories with a 17% lead. The main figures are above. The fieldwork was carried out by phone from June 13th – June 15th – so the polling was done at the start of last week. The pollster has also revealed its figures for May which were CON 45%: LAB 13% 33%: LD 14%. These had been held up pending…
How punters have reacted to his first twelve months At almost exactly 3.30pm on the afternoon of June 27th 2007, just after Gordon Brown had started works as prime minister, I took the snap-shot below of the main general election betting markets. I did this partially as a matter of record. This afternoon, at almost exactly the same time I took another snap-shot of the same markets so we can see how things have changed. General Election betting – June…
Will Walter Sweeney attack from the right on 42 days? Amongst the massive list of contenders for the Haltemprice and Howden by election is a Dublin-born former Tory MP who looks set to attack Davis from the right on 42 day detention period issue. He is Walter Sweeney who held Vale of Glamorgan for the Tories by 19 votes in 1992 and who had plenty of run-ins with David Davis during the Maastricht votes in the final years of the…