Do the SNP really have a chance in Glasgow East?

Do the SNP really have a chance in Glasgow East?

Have we been mesmerised by Boris, Crewe and Henley? During this crazy political period of spring and early summer the sure-fire way of winning political bets has been always to go against Labour. We had Boris’s triumph in London, the Tory gain in Crewe and Nantwich, followed by the Labour lost deposit in Henley. Bet against Labour – pick up your winnings. Now we’ve got the Glasgow East by election later in the month and judging by comments on the…

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How serious is the Vaz letter issue?

How serious is the Vaz letter issue?

Was a deal done or not? The big news from PMQs was the revelation by David Cameron that he had a letter from Geoff Hoon which could be read as suggesting that that the Leicester MP would be rewarded for voting with the government in the 42 day detention period vote three weeks ago. Until now Gordon Brown has flatly denied all suggestions that deals were done. The handwritten note said “”Dear Keith … Just a quick note to thank…

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Are these the MORI numbers that will decide it?

Are these the MORI numbers that will decide it?

Is it “the economy, stupid” The above table is reproduced from the June Ipsos-MORI “Issues Index” survey which has been carried out face-to-face in the same manner for decades. What’s unique about this polling series is that two questions are put totally unprompted, and the pollster has detailed records going back to the 70s. The first asks respondents to name the single most important issue facing the country while the second involves people naming all the issues they think are…

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What price the Gordon come-back?

What price the Gordon come-back?

Guest slot by HenryG Manson Brown’s first year has been a real rollercoaster ride and most of us in the Labour Party are feeling rather unsettled and at times wanting to get off. To read the views Westminster commentators you’d be hard pressed to find anyone you thinks Brown can successfully tie his shoe-laces at the moment, never mind lead a dramatic poll recovery. The named leader polling offers grim reading. At the moment David Cameron is winning on pretty…

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Will the SNP be using this picture in Glasgow East?

Will the SNP be using this picture in Glasgow East?

Could the Thatcher stunt come to haunt Labour? An alert PB reader has reminded me that last September after Gordon Brown had his historic tea with Baroness Thatcher at Number 10 the SNP said they would use the pictures on their general election leaflets. Well now in the countdown to Glasgow East is Alex Salmond’s party going to bring this plan forward and are we we going to see pictures like the one above being revived. For even the Baroness’s…

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Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Would Tory leads be as big if older methodologies were still used? One factor that has completely changed the backcloth against which UK political life operates has been the almost total overhaul of the polling industry since the 2001 election to deal with what was the systemic problem of Labour over-statement. It is my contention that if the 2001 line-up of pollsters and polling methods were still in place then the current Labour poll deficits would be on a much…

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Is Sarah the only one who can tell him?

Is Sarah the only one who can tell him?

Q4 2008 now becomes the favourite date? The Sun’s Trevor Kavanagh runs through all the options on who will be able to tell Gordon and ends up by quoting a friend – “It has to be Sarah,” said a friend. “Nobody in this Cabinet has the balls to do it.” The general consensus, though, is that is has to be soon. In the departure date betting Oct–Dec 2008 has now become the 1.7/1 favourite. Second favourite is July – September…

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Can it really go on like this for two years?

Can it really go on like this for two years?

What is going to bring Brown’s position to a head? Yet again it is Gordon Brown’s future that continues to dominate UK politics. In her Monday Guardian column the former Brown enthusiast, Jackie Ashley, makes a powerful call on leading ministers and others within the Labour party to take some action to “end the drift”. Either they should come out and support the Prime Minister or they must act to get rid of him and this, she argues, has to…

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