It’s back to a 22% Labour deficit The second poll of the night, the monthly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the following with changes on the last published survey by the pollster for the Daily Telegraph a fortnight ago. CON 47%(+1): LAB 25%(-3): LD 18%(+3) The ICM poll showing a Labour lead of 14% in Glasgow East was covered in the previous thread. The YouGov survey will come as something of a blow for Labour because the previous…
BBC Newsnight Will the poll ease the jitters at Number 10? Telegraph reporting – “The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent. Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.” We need to see the details of the poll, of course, but this margin looks emphatic and suggests that Labour will hold…
How many State Houses will change hands? In this, the centennial year of the non-partisan National Governors’ Association, the Democrats currently occupy 28 of the 50 State Houses in the US, and will be hoping to extend this tally in November. These races, which arguably have a greater impact on voters’ lives than Congressional contests, are frequently overshadowed by elections for the US Senate, so I wanted to give an overview of each of November’s Gubernatorial battles. I have excluded…
What’s happening across the Irish sea? After the passage of ’42 days’ through the Commons, and the deal-that-never-was between Brown and the DUP, it struck me that how rarely Northern Ireland makes the news nowadays. Most of us in the UK grew up with nightly stories of the IRA, Bloody Sunday inquiries, Gerry Adams being voiced by actors, UVF revenge attacks, the Peace Process, Good Friday Agreements, and eventually power-sharing at Stormont. It occurred to me that Northern Ireland was…
The markets now suggest a majority of just 26 seats Our latest Friday evening general election countdown slot is devoted to the spread betting markets on the number of seats each of the parties will end up with – something which with all the focus on the by elections we have not looked at for a month. With both Spreadfair and the SportingIndex markets there has been a distinct move away from the Tories and both markets are now suggesting…
Is the “poll” for the whole of Scotland – not just Glasgow East? Within the past hour above story has just gone up on the Guardian website – BUT PUNTERS HOLDER ON. It looks as though the paper might have confused an all-Scotland Westminster voting intention poll that was published overnight with one that was done specifically on Glasgow East. There is, of course, a world of difference. Stuart Dickson posted the all-Scotland poll here early this morning. Where the…
Does their failure suggest that anti-Tory voting is drying up? In all the analysis of the H&H numbers very little attention is being paid to the Green party which is making great play this morning of their 7.4% in Haltemprice and Howden – their candidate’s site suggests it’s a party record. But in the absence of Labour and the Liberal Democrat candidates you would have thought that the Greens, the only other nationally known party with MEPs and councillors, would…
And why more abysmal election coverage by the BBC? So David Davis got his expected big victory in the early hours and the BBC showed once again with their minimal coverage of the count and lack of analysis that they have abandoned their case to be funded by a tax enforced by all the apparatus of the criminal law. Covering the electoral process at work should be the first priority for a public service broadcaster and they failed miserably. Sky,…