Could Cameron really be heading for a 260 seat majority? One of the things I often write when talking about UK polling is that based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied. This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position. So the seat…
MORI put the Tories 24% ahead The Guardian is reporting this evening that Brown was in bullish mood about Labour’s election chances as he talked to journalists on the long flight to China for the Olympics. According to Deborah Summers he “..rejected Tory claims that it was now impossible for Labour to win the next election. “We are going to go on and win,” he said. “We are getting on with the job. You will find, as we get into…
Is this why a cabinet re-shuffle could be a minefield? All of those old enough remember it – the speech to the commons by the deputy prime minister, Sir Geoffrey Howe, in November 1990 after he had resigned from Mrs. Thatcher’s cabinet. Click on the picture to watch. This was probably the most dramatic event that has been seen on TV from the Commons since the cameras were allowed in during the 1980s. For what Howe said that day and…
Is the VEEP teasing like last autumn’s UK election speculation? One of the main reasons why Mr Brown is in trouble now, as we all know, is that he and his team allowed the talk of an early general election last autumn to get out of hand. There was a sense that they were teasing the public, the media and the rest of the Westminster village and that when it all got called off the mood changed dramatically. Is there…
How the VP announcement might win more votes As we wait for the Obama VP announcement it’s perhaps worth looking at why his campaign has said that the name will be announced first to all those who have registered their mobile phone numbers so that they can receive a text message. For a key strategy is to collect as many such numbers as possible in order to help the campaign in the final few hours before and during voting on…
But does the poll ask the wrong question? The Guardian’s ICM poll for August is out and has the following shares compared with the last survey from the pollster earlier in the month – CON 44% (- 1): LAB 29% (nc): LD 19% (+3) So broadly little change except that that the dreadful rating for the Lib Dems from ICM that we saw at the start of August has now been reversed and Clegg’s party is back on 19%. The…
At least it will end the betting misery If ever there’s been a market that’s alerted me to the fact that I might have a problem with betting on politics it has been on Barack Obama’s choice of running mate. As I noted here in June – betting on this is a “mug’s game” because it’s the choice of just one man and we can only speculate on what his criteria will be. Normally I like to think that I’m…
Should he really be calling fellow leaders a “liar” and a “joke”? With barely nineteen months to go before a general election has to be declared the Tory leader, David Cameron, has moved into dangerous territory, I believe, with some of the language he is using publicly to describe Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg. As the Telegraph reports it this morning “In a series of conversations for a new book by Dylan Jones, the editor of GQ magazine, the Tory…