Does Brown really have a chance of saving the day? There’s an interesting piece by Kevin Maguire of the Mirror quoting an as yet to be published article by Peter Kellner of YouGov suggesting that Labour might still have a chance. The arguments are ones we have seen before – governments, it is said recover from mid-term lows and we all know that the Tories need a vote margin of 6% just to be equal on seats and a 10%…
Could this add to Dave’s problems with right-wingers? The first paragraph of the Guardian’s editorial today is featured above and raises a question that is quite revolutionary for the paper – the idea that a Tory government might not be the worst possible outcome at the general election. Revolutionary because one of the bedrock certainties of the media and politics is that the Guardian is the most anti-Tory of what used to be called the broad-sheet press. Just recall the…
Should foreigners just keep out? A new poll for the BBC World Service poll shows that in all 22 countries surveyed, people wanted Obama to be the next President rather than McCain. The Democratic nominee was preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled. But is this exactly the sort of thing that will do Obama harm? We all recall the Guardian’s crazy exercise in 2004 when readers were encouraged to send emails to…
Even without the “adjustments” things look awful One of the nagging doubts at the back of my mind about the current Tory poll leads is that much of it could be down to modern polling techniques. Could it be, I’ve been asking myself as I work out how much to risk on the spread markets, that part of Labour’s deficits are down to the adjustments that pollsters make and not fundamental shifts of opinion? The new polling techniques have not…
Will the Birmingham away-day keep Gord in his job? Well there they are after a summer of apparent discontent and whispering and the cabinet all travel to Birmingham to hold the first meeting outside London for ninety years. Every single one of them joins in by doing outside public events before the meeting itself which receives much more media attention than usual. And judging by the statements of loyalty and support afterwards it appears that this novel move by Brown…
Should it be a referendum on Obama or on Bush/McCain? In contrast to early expectations the 2008 Presidential election is proving a very tight race. This is a huge surprise given the political atmospherics. George Bush has approval ratings in the low 30s while 80% of Americans feel the country is on the wrong track. Polls show a generic Democrat beating a generic Republican by double digits. Why then is the race so close and what does this mean for…
Could they both be heading towards evens? The chart shows the changing John McCain price on the heavily-traded Betfair betting exchange over the past 24 hours. There’s no doubt where the money is going – on John McCain who is now at his highest level ever on this market. My approach to this is to bet against Obama rather than for McCain so you are covered in the event of something untoward happening to the GOP nominee. You would also…
Has the race reached a tipping point? As the chart shows there was a time at during November and December 2007 when the McCain betting price for President reached 40/1 and congratulations to those on the site who were highlighting this at the time and got bets on at what now seem sensational prices. Alas I was not one of them. I took the view that the 72 year old Vietnam veteran was just too old and didn’t give him…