The PB 10/1 by-election gamble is looking very good Gordon’s smile says it all. Cast your mind back just eleven months to that euphoric day, June 27th 2007, when the Blair era ended and the Brown era began. Not long after the formalities the picture was taken outside Number 10 and during the following hour there was a huge buzz on PB. It started at 3.15 pm with this comment by Charlie – “some excellent new markets on hills ive…
Is this why she is staying in the race? An interesting article by Roger Simon on the excellent Politico site assesses whether Hillary has the strength and the arguments to force her way onto the ticket to occupy the V-P slot. He writes:”…Her victories in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia and her strength with women and white working-class voters have fuelled the argument that Barack Obama must put her on the ticket if he wins the nomination…
Could an appalling result start a chain reaction? On October 18th 1990 a by-election took place in the Sussex seaside resort of Eastbourne to fill the vacancy caused by the the death of Ian Gow, the previous MP and close friend of Margaret Thatcher who had been murdered by the Provisional IRA. The result, as seen above, was a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats. The result, reproduced from Wikipedia above, particularly in view of the circumstances of the by-election,…
Are the bookies really taking a hammering? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has followed up its early payout on Boris in the London Mayoral election by repeating the exercise with the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich. In the former the money came after the polls had closed but before the count. With tomorrow’s by-election the polling stations have not even opened yet. This is good publicity stunt and shows the view of the betting community that a Tory victory tomorrow is…
This looks like a great value bet With the main contest in Crewe & Nantwich now a foregone conclusion is it worth betting on the Lib Dems squeezing out Labour for the runner-up slot? There are a whole series of reasons why this could be a value bet. The odds are good. This morning Ladbrokes are offering 12/1 on this eventuality and are accepting reasonably large bets. The Lib Dems “final 24 hours” record. Where the party is particularly strong…
Obama wins majority of pledged delegates but the race goes on This is the new Clinton TV commercial for South Dakota which is holding its elections on June 3rd on the last day of this prolonged primary campaign for the Democratic nomination. It has just been issued even though overnight Obama took a gigantic step forward by securing a majority of pledged delegates. Hillary had her expected big victory in Kentucky but Barack has built up a big margin in…
Chickendancer Will he win enough pledged delegates to get a majority? The sign is from Prosperity, South Carolina and overnight is probably the last occasion when the picture can be used because it’s highly likely that Obama will pick up enough pledged delegates to be able to claim a clear majority. There are 51 at stake from today’s Kentucky primary and 52 from Oregon. He just needs 25 of them to be able to claim he’s won on this count….
The chart shows the changing Labour price in the Crewe and Nantwich betting illustrated as an implied probability. Almost inevitably the money has moved away from Labour following the opinion polls suggesting that Gordon Brown has very little chance of saving the seat. You can still get money on the Tories but not very much. The price has been squeezed down to 0.05/1 – which means that a successful £10 bet would produce a profit of just 50 pence. Mike…