Will Yuriko Koike make it as Japan’s first woman PM?

Will Yuriko Koike make it as Japan’s first woman PM?

Wikimedia Commons But Taro Aso is the strong favourite to be the LDP’s fourth leader this term Following Tzipi Livni’s 431-vote victory in the Kadima leadership this week, five contenders are lined up to take over the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) in Japan tomorrow. Unlike Livni, who has her work cut out trying to put a coalition together (maybe a 50% chance at best) before she can become Israel’s PM, whoever follows Yasuo Fukuda at the LDP helm will certainly…

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Four more resignations after the conference?

Four more resignations after the conference?

News of the World reports more bad news to come for Brown As the Labour Conference gets underway and the party tries to present a united front, there is more bad news for the PM today, with the News of the World reporting that four more members of the government are preparing to resign. The paper says that two of the four are mid-ranking ministers and two are ministerial assistants, although their identities have not been hinted at – they…

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Labour level-pegging in Glenrothes: ICM

Labour level-pegging in Glenrothes: ICM

But will the polls be as wrong as they were in Glasgow East? A night of four polls all doing very different things has been finalised with an ICM survey in Glenrothes, scene of the upcoming by-election, which suggests that Labour is in for a hard fight. In the seat that adjoins Brown’s and where the party had a 10,600 majority at the general election ICM found that both Labour and the SNP were on 43% each. That’s fine except…

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“Tory majority of 146” according to 34,000 sample poll

“Tory majority of 146” according to 34,000 sample poll

A new poll just out by PoliticsHome with the fieldwork carried out by YouGov seeks to make a more accurate prediction of the next election by interviewing more than 34,000 people in more than 200 marginal constituencies. These have been broken down in 17 separate categories of seat and the poll has sought to discover different trends. From the data a projected majority of 146 is forecast. The project has been masterminded by Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report which…

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What ever happened to redrawing the electoral map?

What ever happened to redrawing the electoral map?

Is 2008 going to prove to be just a twist on 2000/2004? Using the highly-addictive site 270-to-win, I’ve recreated the political map that confronted us after Al Gore’s popular vote margin failed to give him the White House in 2000. The result in the Electoral College that year was Bush 271 v 266 Gore, one of the tightest results ever. Re-apportionment of Congressional Districts as a result of the decennial census has changed the number of Electoral College votes each…

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Has Luntz Part 2 saved the day for Gord?

Has Luntz Part 2 saved the day for Gord?

Does his latest session merely add to the confusion? As Mike has noted before, when Frank Luntz conducted focus groups on the Labour leadership back in September 2006, there was a complete lack of appetite for Gordon Brown. The other much-noted result was the extent to which these findings dashed the hopes of Alan Johnson. The results were not just definitive – they were damning. So what are we to make of last night Luntz performance for Newsnight, when he…

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Lib Dems get big conference boost with YouGov

Lib Dems get big conference boost with YouGov

Labour only four points ahead of Nick Clegg’s party On top of the good news overnight from the Frank Luntz focus group there’s a big boost for the Lib Dems tonight in the September YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph. The figures are with changes on the last poll from the firm two weeks ago:- CON 44%(-2): LAB 24% (-3): LD 20% (+4) This is the highest Lib Dem figure from the internet pollster since November 2005 – the month…

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