“Tory majority of 146” according to 34,000 sample poll

“Tory majority of 146” according to 34,000 sample poll

A new poll just out by PoliticsHome with the fieldwork carried out by YouGov seeks to make a more accurate prediction of the next election by interviewing more than 34,000 people in more than 200 marginal constituencies. These have been broken down in 17 separate categories of seat and the poll has sought to discover different trends. From the data a projected majority of 146 is forecast. The project has been masterminded by Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report which…

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What ever happened to redrawing the electoral map?

What ever happened to redrawing the electoral map?

Is 2008 going to prove to be just a twist on 2000/2004? Using the highly-addictive site 270-to-win, I’ve recreated the political map that confronted us after Al Gore’s popular vote margin failed to give him the White House in 2000. The result in the Electoral College that year was Bush 271 v 266 Gore, one of the tightest results ever. Re-apportionment of Congressional Districts as a result of the decennial census has changed the number of Electoral College votes each…

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Has Luntz Part 2 saved the day for Gord?

Has Luntz Part 2 saved the day for Gord?

Does his latest session merely add to the confusion? As Mike has noted before, when Frank Luntz conducted focus groups on the Labour leadership back in September 2006, there was a complete lack of appetite for Gordon Brown. The other much-noted result was the extent to which these findings dashed the hopes of Alan Johnson. The results were not just definitive – they were damning. So what are we to make of last night Luntz performance for Newsnight, when he…

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Lib Dems get big conference boost with YouGov

Lib Dems get big conference boost with YouGov

Labour only four points ahead of Nick Clegg’s party On top of the good news overnight from the Frank Luntz focus group there’s a big boost for the Lib Dems tonight in the September YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph. The figures are with changes on the last poll from the firm two weeks ago:- CON 44%(-2): LAB 24% (-3): LD 20% (+4) This is the highest Lib Dem figure from the internet pollster since November 2005 – the month…

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Bob Worcester on the MORI 28% Tory lead

Bob Worcester on the MORI 28% Tory lead

(This is the second guest slot that Bob Worcester, the founder of MORI (now Ipsos-MORI) has produced for PB in which he reviews the polls from his experience of nearly 40 years conducting and observing polls and how they are reported.) “Brown doomed as Tories head for 330 majority” Have I got news for you, as they say, especially directed at the sub-editor on the Express who used the latest Ipsos MORI poll showing a 28% Conservative lead with the…

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Will Lib Dems be complaining about Luntz this time?

Will Lib Dems be complaining about Luntz this time?

Doesn’t the latest focus group highlight Clegg’s central dilemma? Three years ago a Frank Luntz focus group on BBC2’s Newsnight so upset a number of Lib Dems on the site and elsewhere that there were formal complaints to the BBC and even suggestions that a conspiracy had taken place. Why it was argued – Luntz was a student at Oxford at the same time as Cameron! Well I guess they won’t complaining today for Nick Clegg was the surprise “winner”…

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How changing poll methodology is adding to Gord’s problems

How changing poll methodology is adding to Gord’s problems

Was “public sector weighting” behind MORI’s Tory 52%? One of the biggest polling changes that we’ve seen in years was introduced by Ipsos-MORI in the summer following a review after the London Mayoral elections. For in trying to work out why its surveys seemed to be over-stating Labour the firm discovered that people working in the public sector were being over-sampled. So a new calculation has been created and this has been one of the reasons why the firm is…

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