How can he stop the seepage of support? The big trend in recent days from the White House race has been the move back to Obama in the polls after appears what appears now to have been a temporary blip following the Palin pick and the GOP convention aftermath. In the betting the latest Obama price suggests a 62% implied probability with McCain on 38%. Just over a week ago both contenders were heading towards evens. In the polls Obama…
Do Brown’s survival chances look better? Sorry about the site going down in the middle of the speech. We’ve been overwhelmed by traffic with so many wanting to follow the discussion. I found interesting the way he name-checked almost every single cabinet member – that’s a Brown innovation. He very rarely recognises that there is anybody else within his government. Overall I felt there was a surprising lack of passion. I was expecting much more than that. There was also…
Click on the panel to watch Have even Labour-leaners just given up on Brown? The picture above is the final screen-shot form the three-part Frank Luntz Newsnight focus group in Manchester which was shown last night. It shows how those involved responded when Luntz asked those who had just “given up on Gordon” to raise their hands. I didn’t do a count but it appeared that about four-fifths of the participants indicated their agreement – and that in a nutshell…
Why Labour should always assume the worst from the polls This is Deborah Mattinson – Labour’s polling advisor who was part of conference session at the weekend on the polls trying to make the case that Cameron has “..yet to seal the deal”. I don’t know about that but the lesson from polling history is that Labour’s default position should be that the most accurate poll is the one with the party in the least favourable position – what I…
The above extraordinary picture is on Ben Brogan’s blog at the Daily Mail and it’s hard to work out what is happening. It was taken at the Labour conference where today Miliband had one of the set-piece speeches. One thing seems pretty certain – the foreign secretary and young pretender, David Miliband, doesn’t look too comfortable. Gord, meanwhile, is beaming and appears happy. Who knows? Mike Smithson
Will Gord’s ovation be longer than IDS’s in 2003? After the speculation here on the site a week ago Ladbrokes have a market on the length of the standing ovation for Gordon Brown at the end of his speech tomorrow morning. The big question is whether Gord can outdo Iain Duncan Smith – the last main party leader who faced a conference with so many questions about his leadership. On October 9th 2003 the applause at the Tory conference went…
What is it about Labour’s women and Gordon? A striking feature of the mini-rebellion that started only a week ago last Friday was the preponderance of woman who came out in support of the move by Siobhain McDonagh – the government whip whose resignation got the ball rolling. That’s been continued with the replies today of a survey in the Independent’s of all members of the Cabinet. Apart from John Hutton, a long-standing Brown-doubter, Hazel Blears, Jacqui Smith and Ruth…
What can we learn from the betting and polls of September 2007 Exactly a year ago – on September 22nd 2007 – Labour, like today was in conference in Manchester and all the talk was about the “coming election”. There were even suggestions that Brown might announce something in his speech – like this year taking place on the Tuesday. There was lots of excitement on the betting markets and I clipped the above from the Spreadfair spread betting exchange…