The polls have been so consistent that it is not hard to understand why the betting markets see a LAB overall majority edging up on the betting markets. Under Sunak the Tories have simply not been able to do anything that undermines the view that Starmer appears set to win the next election with a majority. This is in spite of the fact that LAB would need to make 125 gains which is a pretty massive ask and is not…
A chance for the Tories? Next May Labour’s Sadiq Khan will be seeking to defend his position as Mayor of London – a post that was first contested in May 2000. What we haven’t seen is any real analysis of the rule changes for these elections bought in by Johnson for Mayoral elections which I believe could make a significant difference to the outcome. He was of course the first Tory to hold this position from 2008 to 2016. When…
Rishi Sunak’s use of helicopters is an issue that really shouldn’t matter in normal circumstances however Sunak’s handling over the issue is proving to be a problem. Watch the video above and listen to a recent interaction between Sunak and a journalist over the use of helicopters. Sunak, not for the first time, sounds very petulant and arrogant. During the white heat of a general election campaign Sunak will come under more scrutiny on more serious subjects and he needs…
Nothing reminds me more of how Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss than Sunak’s utter failure on dealing with the Channel crossings. This is a battle Sunak is losing quite badly and publicly. Sunak’s stop the boats pledge, like the Maginot Line, was designed to reassure a country about it’s safety and security, but had a huge flaw. Not only is it the failure to stop the crossings, it is the resultant calamities such as the Legionella outbreak on the…
Could overturning Brexit become a serious campaign? This latest poll from Omnius is in line with other recent polls that we have seen when voters are asked whether they would vote to rejoin the EU if given the opportunity. The problem for those wanting to get back into Europe is that it is hard to see either of the main political parties taking this on board. Clearly the Tories are the main party for Leave and look set to pay…
But is he really going to stand given his age – 80? By far the biggest betting market over the next fifteen months will be the one above – who is going to win WH2024 and as can be seen from the chart Biden is now a 40% chance. There have been some reports however that he might stand aside before the primaries start because of his age. There’s little doubt that the Republicans will make this a key part…
Sunak’s failure will cost his party dear for years to come The big NHS news this afternoon is that the NHS waiting list in England is now almost at 8m – the highest level yet. This is a figure that needs to be going down sharply if the Tories are to convince voters that the NHS is indeed safe in their hands. What infuriates me and I am sure many others is the way Sunak always responds when pressed on…