October 6: Happy birthday Brown’s biggest cock-up!

October 6: Happy birthday Brown’s biggest cock-up!

Is Jackie Ashley right – is it now “Emergency Labour”? I thought that we could not let this day pass by without recalling that it was exactly a year ago, on October 6th 2007, that Gordon Brown recorded his fateful interview with Andrew Marr calling off a late autumn general election. Everything about the current political situation derives from that point which saw a U-turn in both Brown and David Cameron’s fortunes. For the extraordinary media honeymoon that Brown had…

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Is everyone going to follow suit now?

Is everyone going to follow suit now?

Merkel announces private savings to be guaranteed in Germany Angela Merkel has announced today that Germany will guarantee all private savings accounts in the country. This follows the news that Hypo Real Estate, Germany’s second biggest commercial property lender, is in trouble after a 35bn euro rescue package fell through. Ireland and Greece have already taken their own action to protect savers’ deposits, moves that had received criticism from within the EU – including Merkel herself and the French Finance…

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How will the next POTUS affect the UK’s General Election?

How will the next POTUS affect the UK’s General Election?

Will British voters learn from the lessons of a new American Presidency? In a fantastic post over at the Spectator Magazine’s Coffee House blog, James Forsyth asks whether an expected Obama presidency will either prove or disprove Gordon Brown’s claim that “this is no time for a novice” He writes “If by the time of the next general election, which will probably be about 16 months into an Obama presidency, Obama is seen as a success, the line will lose…

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The Sundays get stuck into Mandelson

The Sundays get stuck into Mandelson

Is the new Cabinet “a supergroup or a sad tribute act”? Peter Mandelson’s return to Cabinet for a third time has given the Sunday papers plenty to consider. The man himself gives an interview to the Observer in which he states that he is “joined at the hip to the PM”, who will lead the party into the next election. The paper says that Miliband’s leadership ambitions are now dead in the water as the Blairites rally round during the…

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Is Labour doing worse in the marginals?

Is Labour doing worse in the marginals?

UPDATED ICM marginals poll suggests a big Tory majority After the euphoria in the Labour camp following recent poll improvements an ICM survey of 192 Labour-held marginals for the News of the World will bring them back down to earth. For it suggests that the party is set to lose 164 seats to the Tories at the general election. and that Cameron’s Conservatives will have a majority of 78. That is on top of any seat losses-gains in the battles…

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Is a landslide on the cards?

Is a landslide on the cards?

Or is this still fundamentally a tight race? Two weeks ago, I wrote an article that said “forbidding a landslide (ie a victory in the popular vote of more than 5%), the 2008 map is unlikely to look significantly different to the maps from 2000 and 2004”. I still think that is true, but the last two weeks have seen a marked movement in both the polls and the betting markets towards Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics (fresh from a…

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So how should Cameron respond?

So how should Cameron respond?

This is an original cartoon by Marf for LondonSketchBook.com Is a Shadow Cabinet re-shuffle the best way to manage a lull? The dramatic return to our shores of Peter Mandelson belies bespeaks a steely pragmatism – that an historic personal conflict has been tossed aside for either the national interest or the benefit of electoral mastery is no meagre move for a man derided as an egotist by his critics. To welcome back ‘the Prince of Darkness’ to the Cabinet,…

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YouGov gives the Tories a 4% bounce

YouGov gives the Tories a 4% bounce

But should we listen to Professor King? The post conference YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is out putting the Tories up four points to 45% in a survey that that Anthony King says shows that the voters “.. are not yet persuaded by the Tories”. Eh? A share of 45% is, of course, bigger than what Tony Blair’s Labour got in the landslide of 1997 – maybe King did not have that result to hand? He is of course…

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