Doesn’t the Bill C complication make it difficult for Barack? As I posted here three weeks ago I am not risking any further cash on either the GOP and Democratic party V-P betting because I’m convinced that this is a mug’s game and it’s very tough to predict either outcome. The final decisions lie with Barack Obama and John McCain personally and, unlike an ordinary election, there is very little to guide us. As can be seen in the panel…
Could the battle be closer than the headline gap of 14%? I’ve now had chance to examine the detailed data from the weekend’s ICM poll on Glasgow East and there are elements which suggest that it might be better for the SNP than the headline data suggests. Spiral of silence adjustment. The actual shares in the poll before the final adjustment were LAB 46%: SNP 35%: CON 7%: LD 10%. The published figures were L47-SNP33-LD9-C7. The change, like with all…
Could Blair have impeded the Tory surge? On Friday I got into an argument with the Labour-leaning blogger I have most respect for, Paul Linford, over what would have happened to the party if Tony had not stepped down in June 2007. I felt that Labour would be doing better – Paul disagreed. He argued: “..Sure, there was a grudging recognition among the public that Blair “deserved†his ten years, but they were absolutely sick to the back teeth of…
Will Hooker looks ahead to next year’s Federal elections In the same way that the Holy Roman Empire was not holy, not Roman, and not an Empire, the current grand coalition government of Germany is not grand, not a coalition, and barely a government. Although its feuding members somehow managed to agree a budget for 2009, the entire focus of the next 12 months will be on positioning the parties for a general election next autumn. The main theme of…
It’s back to a 22% Labour deficit The second poll of the night, the monthly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the following with changes on the last published survey by the pollster for the Daily Telegraph a fortnight ago. CON 47%(+1): LAB 25%(-3): LD 18%(+3) The ICM poll showing a Labour lead of 14% in Glasgow East was covered in the previous thread. The YouGov survey will come as something of a blow for Labour because the previous…
BBC Newsnight Will the poll ease the jitters at Number 10? Telegraph reporting – “The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent. Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.” We need to see the details of the poll, of course, but this margin looks emphatic and suggests that Labour will hold…
How many State Houses will change hands? In this, the centennial year of the non-partisan National Governors’ Association, the Democrats currently occupy 28 of the 50 State Houses in the US, and will be hoping to extend this tally in November. These races, which arguably have a greater impact on voters’ lives than Congressional contests, are frequently overshadowed by elections for the US Senate, so I wanted to give an overview of each of November’s Gubernatorial battles. I have excluded…
What’s happening across the Irish sea? After the passage of ’42 days’ through the Commons, and the deal-that-never-was between Brown and the DUP, it struck me that how rarely Northern Ireland makes the news nowadays. Most of us in the UK grew up with nightly stories of the IRA, Bloody Sunday inquiries, Gerry Adams being voiced by actors, UVF revenge attacks, the Peace Process, Good Friday Agreements, and eventually power-sharing at Stormont. It occurred to me that Northern Ireland was…