Is Brown’s plight much worse than John Major’s?

Is Brown’s plight much worse than John Major’s?

Do these 95-97 ICM polls undermine the swing-back theorists? Anybody trying to predict whether Brown’s Labour has any chance at all of turning things round should look at the above table very carefully. For it shows all the Guardian’s ICM surveys for the period from 21 months before the May 1 1997 general election which, of course, brought Blair’s Labour to power in a landslide. Just compare the polling figures from the August of 1995 with what happened at the…

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Will the SNP knock out the pollsters on Thursday?

Will the SNP knock out the pollsters on Thursday?

Will Labour’s position, once again, have been massively overstated? Those who are basing their betting on Labour in Glasgow on the opinion polls should be warned – the pollsters have a long record of over-stating the party’s position and, occasionally of getting the outcome wrong. Just look at the record:- Hartlepool September 2004: The only poll suggested that Labour would hold onto the seat by margin of 33%. On the day the party won by 7%. Labour’s position was overstated…

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In the Sunday papers

In the Sunday papers

SNP internal poll shows them just 4 points behind in Glasgow East Four days ahead of Glasgow East, the Sunday Herald is reporting SNP internal polling that shows them behind by just 4 points, while Labour internal polling shows that it will be “as tight as hell” – a 3-figure majority now looks likely. Latest Glasgow East prices are here. The Scotland on Sunday considers the impact that the Glasgow Fair is having on the campaign, while Geoffrey Wheatcroft portrays…

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Labour drop to a record low with ComRes

Labour drop to a record low with ComRes

National poll blow for Brown ahead of Glasgow East The figures from ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday are just out and show Labour with a record low share from the pollster. Please note the comparisons above are from the last survey by the pollster – not the last survey in the Indy on Sunday. Newspapers always seem to assume that the comparisons we want are those from the last poll they published – not the last one from the…

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Are we going to see a record Labour deficit?

Are we going to see a record Labour deficit?

What record will be broken later today? John Rentoul has news on his blog that there is a significant poll to be published in the Independent on Sunday, expected from ComRes later today. He writes: “We have a ComRes poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow. Another record will be broken. We have also asked people whether they agree or disagree with the following statements: Britain should never have become involved in Iraq British troops should be withdrawn from Iraq…

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How audacious is Obama prepared to be?

How audacious is Obama prepared to be?

Could a daring move could seal the Election early? Very few people would fail to recognise the talents of Senator Obama as a campaigning politician. His oratory is uplifting, his intellect apparent, his energy and youth appealing, and his campaign not only made the most of new technology, but didn’t sacrifice the benefits of old-fashioned door knocking and lawn signs either. He beat one of the toughest opponents imagineable in the primary season, and now enjoys a massive fundraising advantage…

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Non-registered pollster gives Labour a 17% by-election lead

Non-registered pollster gives Labour a 17% by-election lead

But how much can we trust a pollster that’s not in the BPC? Ben Brogan is carrying a report that a new poll for the Scottish Daily Mail has Labour 17% ahead in Glasgow East. This comes as the campaign goes into its final weekend. The pollster, Progressive Scottish Opinion, is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council and it is hard from its website to work out what its methodological approach is. We do not know…

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PB Election Countdown: What makes marginals different?

PB Election Countdown: What makes marginals different?

Blair Freebairn on where the election will be decided (This is a repeat of a guest contribution that was featured last October and offered a an original and convincing insight into the characteristics of the key battle-grounds. Blair’s piece has had a big impact on my thinking and I thought it would be worth a second run – MS) The Pirahã tribe of the Amazon has words for one, two and many. Number-wise that’s it. The count for an STV…

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