Was it Morus’s argument that caused November 6th to be chosen?
During my visit to Westminster today I got talking with one key player who is close to the Brown camp who believes that it was highly likely that Morus’s post in mid-August played in key part in determining the date for the Glenrothes by election.
This is the fight in the adjoining constituency to Gord’s which if it went to the SNP would be highly embarrassing to the Prime Minister. There were suggestions before the conference season that a Labour defeat there would spell the end for Brown.
I’m not so sure that that still applies – the financial crisis and Gord’s ability to operate in an area in which he is confident have given him a fresh boost and I don’t think the by election will be as critical as it might have appeared.
But there’s one thing for certain – whatever happens there the news is likely to be eclipsed by the results of the US Presidential election which will only be known only a few hours beforehand. With the whole world focussing on Obama/McCain’s/Palin’s victory news of a minor election in Scotland is not going to command that much attention.
If Labour thought that there’s a risk of losing the seat then what better day could there be, as Morus argued, than November 6th.
As to the vote itself I’m becoming less convinced that this will be a certainty for the SNP that it appeared a week or so ago. Labour has been doing very well north of the borders and the party could just pull off a shock victory. The last time there were betting prices up the price was 5/2 – might be worth the punt.
Well done Morus. if Labour had any money we would demand a consultancy fee.