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How can Gord avoid Dave’s deliberate wind-ups? No doubt that on his flight across the Atlantic for the G20 meeting Gordon Brown will be reflecting on yesterday’s PMQs which seemed to go horribly wrong. Could the Cameron approach not have been the accident it appeared to be but was it part of a carefully worked out plan to undermine him? I’ve just been asked that question by a journalist who suggested that I might have predicted yesterday’s PMQ flare-up in…

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(According to the UK Polling Report seat guide the Nottinghamshire seat of Broxtowe is Tory Target number 42 and requires a swing of just 2.35%. Yet can Nick, who became the first MP poster prepared to contribute here under his own name four years ago, manage to hold on? In one sense he is honoured for his constituency is the first where betting has now opened. So the subject of incumbency is pretty close to Nick’s heart and he has…

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Does the data support the “heartlands” theory? My apologies for the third post in succession about the Populus poll but it has been the most sensational survey that we’ve seen in months and it does merit close examination. The detail has now been made available and one element sticks out – how well Labour polled in Scotland in the immediate three days after the Glenrothes by election. Just look at the numbers above which I should explain don’t represent individual…

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How come the firms have such different results? Above is the rather anonymous office block in Bedford which houses the ICM calling centre where, more than likely, the field-work for today’s Populus poll in the Times was carried out. “ICM calling centre..”, I can hear you saying,”.. surely some mistake?” No – because the process of doing the telephone interviews is something that Populus usually contracts out and ICM are a leader in this field. There are other similarities as…

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