The money piles on the Tories after the PMQ row

The money piles on the Tories after the PMQ row

Projected CON majority: 34 (+8) seats Whatever the rights and wrongs of yesterday’s fierce exchanges in the House of Commons the spread betting punters who risk shed-loads of cash on the commons seats markets have given their verdict by “buying” Conservative seats and “selling” Labour. On Tuesday, as I reported here after the Populus poll, the commons seat spreads from PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index were: CON 336-342: LAB 240-246: LD 43-46 seats. Taking the mid-point between the buy and the…

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Nick Palmer on “What price incumbency?

Nick Palmer on “What price incumbency?

(According to the UK Polling Report seat guide the Nottinghamshire seat of Broxtowe is Tory Target number 42 and requires a swing of just 2.35%. Yet can Nick, who became the first MP poster prepared to contribute here under his own name four years ago, manage to hold on? In one sense he is honoured for his constituency is the first where betting has now opened. So the subject of incumbency is pretty close to Nick’s heart and he has…

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What do we make of the PMQ exchanges?

What do we make of the PMQ exchanges?

click on picture to watch How would Blair have dealt with this? For Gordon Brown today’s PMQs should have been a breeze. The Governor of the Bank of England was broadly endorsing his tax cuts plan which should have provided the ammunition to embarrass Cameron. Instead we got a stinging exchange over the Haringey baby tragedy with, at one point, Brown accusing Cameron of “playing party politics” over the issue – a mistake. What struck me was how poor Brown…

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How a “losing” Labour bet could be a winner

How a “losing” Labour bet could be a winner

Is Paddy Power’s the best Labour bet about? The Glenrothes by-elections and the narrowing of the gap in the latest Populus poll has renewed interest in betting on the outcome of the next general election – but the possibility of confusion has arisen over how you define “winner”. Most bookies and Betfair use this format – “Which of these parties will win the most Parliamentary seats at the next UK General Election?”. That seems simple enough though you could see…

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Who’ll win the argument on tax cuts?

Who’ll win the argument on tax cuts?

Are we seeing politics turn upside-down? While the main story today has been the 90th anniversary of the ending of the First World War all three main party leaders have been casting their hats into the ring in the new war – that of who has the best tax cut policies. No doubt we’ll see more hostilities at PMQs tomorrow. Gone are the days, it seems, that before you put together a cutting proposal it had to be funded in…

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How much of Populus was down to Scotland?

How much of Populus was down to Scotland?

Does the data support the “heartlands” theory? My apologies for the third post in succession about the Populus poll but it has been the most sensational survey that we’ve seen in months and it does merit close examination. The detail has now been made available and one element sticks out – how well Labour polled in Scotland in the immediate three days after the Glenrothes by election. Just look at the numbers above which I should explain don’t represent individual…

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Did ICM carry out today’s Populus poll?

Did ICM carry out today’s Populus poll?

How come the firms have such different results? Above is the rather anonymous office block in Bedford which houses the ICM calling centre where, more than likely, the field-work for today’s Populus poll in the Times was carried out. “ICM calling centre..”, I can hear you saying,”.. surely some mistake?” No – because the process of doing the telephone interviews is something that Populus usually contracts out and ICM are a leader in this field. There are other similarities as…

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Populus has Tory lead down to 6%

Populus has Tory lead down to 6%

CONSERVATIVES 41% (-4) LABOUR 35% (+5) LIB DEMS 16% (+1) In what is by far and away the best poll for Labour for more than six months the November Populus poll for the Times has last month’s Tory lead of 15% down to just 6%. This is a very big change and means that the pollster is showing a very different picture from ICM which reported at the weekend. Putting these numbers into the UK Polling Report seat calculator and…

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