CONSERVATIVES 41% (-2) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 11% (-4) What will this do to the election speculation? A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Daily Mirror is out this morning and shows a four point increase in Labour support at the expense of the Lib Dems. The Tories are down two so last month’s MORI margin of 11% is reduced to 5%. The 11% Lib Dem share equals the lowest total that Nick Clegg’s party has had in any…
Will the GOP race be down to Palin against Huntsman? Exactly a month ago today I made my first bet of the 2012 White House Race – £50 at 200/1 on Jon Huntsman, the young governor of Utah for President. Since then the Ladbrokes price on my man has tightened to 33/1 with 20/1 on him getting the Republican nomination. In the meantime there’s news that the highly tipped governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, is making it clear that he…
Is Portillo right about the Conservatives and Clarke? The Sunday Times reports that the Cabinet is split over the proposed third runway at Heathrow, with Hilary Benn warning that the expansion should be rejected unless noise and air pollution are dramatically cut. The Environment Secretary gives an interview to the paper who suggest that the “similarities between the father and his cabinet minister son are becoming increasingly apparent”. ST columnist Michael Portillo argues that “if the Tories lose the election…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (+1) LABOUR 35% (-1) LIB DEMS 15% (+1) Will this bring relief to Team Cameron The second poll of the night, by YouGov for the Sunday Times, adds further to the confused picture of what is happening to public opinion about the general election. For the online pollster is reporting a two point increase in the Tory lead with Cameron’s party still above 40%. It also, contrary to ComRes, has the Lib Dems advancing even if only by…
CONSERVATIVES 37% (nc) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (-3) Tory lead still at just one point The IoS ComRes poll is just out and represents no change between the two main parties but a sharpish slump in the Lib Dem share. Clearly Labour will be delighted with the numbers though I would have expected Brown’s party would have done better given the Lib Dem movement. Normally a Lib Dem decline leads to a Labour boost – but not here….
Are his shadows keeping him on his toes? Here’s a statement that might not meet with universal agreement on the site: in recent weeks, I’ve been rather impressed by Ed Balls’ performance as Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families. In spite of the fact that Ipsos MORI’s issue tracker shows Education mattering less than at any time since Labour came to power, the Secretary of State has recently secured additional funding from the Treasury for underachieving schools, agreed…
Would that be a better way to beat the Soup-Dragon? Sad news this week, with the death of children’s animation maestro Oliver Postgate who passed away on Monday. Postgate was the creator of such classics as Bagpuss, Ivor the Engine and Noggin the Nog, but his enduring legacy will be the surreal and innovative world of the Clangers. I cannot take credit for being the first to wonder whether a political article could be crafted from the inspiration of Postgate’s…
How will this affect the election PR war? What strikes me as the most significant story of the day in terms of the next general election is the letter by Sir Michael Scholar, to Jeremy Heywood, Permanent Secretary at the Prime Minister’s Office, on yesterday’s knife crime statistics. For one of the dead easy ways that Brown Central can get onto the next bulletins is by announcing some statistics and its always possible to play about with them to show…