UPDATED ICM marginals poll suggests a big Tory majority After the euphoria in the Labour camp following recent poll improvements an ICM survey of 192 Labour-held marginals for the News of the World will bring them back down to earth. For it suggests that the party is set to lose 164 seats to the Tories at the general election. and that Cameron’s Conservatives will have a majority of 78. That is on top of any seat losses-gains in the battles…
Or is this still fundamentally a tight race? Two weeks ago, I wrote an article that said “forbidding a landslide (ie a victory in the popular vote of more than 5%), the 2008 map is unlikely to look significantly different to the maps from 2000 and 2004”. I still think that is true, but the last two weeks have seen a marked movement in both the polls and the betting markets towards Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics (fresh from a…
This is an original cartoon by Marf for LondonSketchBook.com Is a Shadow Cabinet re-shuffle the best way to manage a lull? The dramatic return to our shores of Peter Mandelson belies bespeaks a steely pragmatism – that an historic personal conflict has been tossed aside for either the national interest or the benefit of electoral mastery is no meagre move for a man derided as an egotist by his critics. To welcome back ‘the Prince of Darkness’ to the Cabinet,…
But should we listen to Professor King? The post conference YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is out putting the Tories up four points to 45% in a survey that that Anthony King says shows that the voters “.. are not yet persuaded by the Tories”. Eh? A share of 45% is, of course, bigger than what Tony Blair’s Labour got in the landslide of 1997 – maybe King did not have that result to hand? He is of course…
Could this now help McCain? Throughout the day all eyes will have been on this Washington building where an hour or so ago the House of Representatives voted to approve the $700bn bail-out plan. This will certainly bring confidence back to the markets which had already discounted the fact that it was going to go through. But what of the political impact? Will it take the focus off economic matters and if so how is it going to affect opinion…
But this is a conference season poll. A new ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and shows a three point increase in the Tory lead. Given that the fieldwork was taken this week that is hardly surprising. I will be interested to look at the detailed data to see what the gap was before the pollster applied its spiral of silence adjustment. This is where it makes an assumption of how those who won’t would vote based on…
It’s 10/1 that he won’t make it to the general election? On July 29th 2004, just as Peter Mandelson was about to take up his role as EU Commissioner, we suggested here that the 3/1 that was then available on him leaving the role early was worth looking at noting that “looking at the form book this might be a good bet!” So another PB tip comes good and I must check with William Hill to find out how much…
Mandelson makes a surprise return in Cabinet reshuffle The big story this morning is the unexpected news that Peter Mandelson is set to return from Brussels and commence his third stint in Cabinet, this time as Business Secretary with a seat in the Lords. Elsewhere, John Hutton moves from Business to replace Des Browne at Defence, while Geoff Hoon takes over at Transport from the departing Ruth Kelly. Margaret Beckett returns in a “cabinet enforcer” role, Ed Miliband will head…