Could Populus mark a change in the media narrative? There are two critical things about a poll – the actual voting intention numbers themselves and how it is reported in the media. It might be recalled that the final YouGov poll of 2008 showing C42-L35-LD14, numbers that are not that much different from today’s Populus poll in the Times, was barely covered by the paper that had spent a substantial sum on the survey. For at the time the media…
CONSERVATIVES 43% (+4) LABOUR 33% (-2) LIB DEMS 15% (-2) Has Gord stopped defying political gravity? The first telephone poll of 2009, from Populus for the Times tomorrow is out and shows a big swing back to the Tories. In recent surveys the phone pollsters have tended to be showing smaller Tory leads than YouGov – which does everything online. The Populus methodology is very similar to ICM – the survey is past vote weighted and a proportion of the…
Is there a danger of the headless chicken syndrome? Almost every working day, it seems, there’s a new government announcement, usually by Brown himself, on measures apparently designed to deal with the recession. Today it was the offer of £2,500 to employers for every person they train who has been unemployed for more than six months. Fair enough – the idea sounds promising but have they got the announcement strategy right? Among the things we had last week were the…
But are the Tory “Arthur Scargills” lining up against? From where I sit it is a statement of the blindingly obvious that Cameron’s chances of securing a majority at the general election would be greatly enhanced if his line-up of shadow ministers included the former Tory Chancellor and long-time political bruiser, Ken Clarke. Jackie Ashley has it right in her Monday Guardian column when she writes “…everyone seems to want Ken Clarke.. back. But by almost everyone I mean commentators,…
Back by popular request to sharpen your forecasting skills On Christmas Day 2009 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer) 1. Prime Minister 2. Leader of the Opposition 3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats 4. The Speaker of the House of Commons 5. Chancellor of the Exchequer In 2009… (Predictions for questions 6-10 should be made to the nearest percentage point) 6. What will be the YES percentage in the Irish EU referendum? 7. What will be the…
So why not do the same with share prices? Our genial host, Mike Smithson, is furious this morning because amidst a number of newspaper stories about who might return to Labour’s fold the Independent on Sunday is quoting what look like betting odds which he cannot find being publicly available anywhere. There is no source mentioned by the paper and nothing to suggest that these might have been created in the newsroom. Mike writes: “The validity of betting odds is…
But will YouGov be overstating UKIP again? With the next EU elections due to take place at the start of June there’s a first poll, from YouGov in the Sunday Telegraph, which suggested that both Labour and the Tories are going to do better then they did last time. These are the figures with comparison on the 2004 EU election result:- CON 35 (+8): LAB 29 (+6): LD 15 (NC): UKIP 7 (-9): GRN 5 (-1): BNP 4: SNP/PC 4…
How do you calculate a ‘moral victory’? Hat Tip to James Forsyth over at the Spectator Coffee House for drawing our attention to an interview with Vince Cable in today’s Times. The key passage that is attracting all the attention is: Although he started his political career in the Labour Party, once working as a special adviser to John Smith, Dr Cable emphasises that the Liberal Democrats would be happy to prop up the Conservatives if they won a “moral…