Is this the way to work out how the firm does its weightings? As regular visitors will know Anthony Wells of UKPollingReport and I have been in discussion for some time with the ComRes polling organisation trying to work out how it does its past vote weighting – a measure that all but one of the pollsters adopt in one form or another to ensure that their samples are politically representative. The process is quite simple. Respondees are asked how…
July 3rd 2008 Could the Harman plan rebound on her party? One of the big political stories during Labour’s dark months of June and July, when its poll ratings collapsed, was the row over MPs expenses, including the so-called “John Lewis List” and the move to thwart Freedom of Information Act inquiries into what individuals were getting from the tax-payer. It was odd that Labour seemed to be the party paying the political price given that it was the activities…
Today’s creation from Marf You can see more from Marf at LondonSketchbook.com.
Click on panel to watch Was avoiding a commons vote a mistake? As suggested in the previous thread the person who is making the news over the Heathrow third runway decision is John McDonnell – the local MP who will see hundreds of his constituents lose their homes over the plan and who has been leading the protests. Unfortunately the pictures of him picking up the mace are not too good and the Parliamentary TV service, as is usual, was…
Will Labour gain from taking the tough decisions? So we are finally going to get a decision? Today Geoff Hoon will announce in the commons that the controversial £9bn plan to build a third runway at Heathrow is to go ahead. For those trying to predict the outcome of the general election the question now is whether this will be a plus for Labour or not. Will Brown’s party gain the benefit for having the foresight and resolve for agreeing…
Has the Wells thesis passed it first test? Early in the New Year I ran a piece about the Anthony Wells theory that what’s driving the voting intention polls is how good or bad voters are feeling about the economy. Anthony, who of course runs UK Polling Report, argued that there was a surprising degree of correlation between Labour polling position and two specific indices – the Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism Index and the Nationwide Building Society Consumer Confidence Index. These…
Skreened What bad news be slipped out as all eyes are on Washington? For a spinner next Tuesday is a mouth-watering prospect. For at noon Washington time, (1700 GMT), the mega news story in the world will be the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. His speech, surely, will dominate the airwaves for at least twenty-four hours. And the great thing is that the “news managers” have known about this for months and will…
How dangerous for Labour is the Harman plan? Perhaps the biggest political achievement of Tony Blair was his ability in the run up to the 1997 general election to transform his party into a political force that it was safe for the “middle classes” – epitomised by Daily Mail readers if you like – to vote for. And when on May 1st of that year the time came to vote millions who had never thought of supporting the party before…