Which of these headlines is the most damaging? What a dreadful set of front pages for Gordon Brown to digest this morning. Not only is there the follow-up to the “cash for laws” allegations but there’s more awful polling news and and in the background the drip by drip news of jobs going up and down the country and in every sector. The release by the Times of the tape recording of the “interview” with one of the “cash for…
CONSERVATIVES 44% (+6) LABOUR 32% (-1) LIB DEMS 16% (-3) But the LDs see a drop to 16% The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories up six points to 44%. The move is in line with all the other surveys that we have seen in the past three weeks and is further evidence that Brown Bounce II has come to a dead stop. Labour will be pleased that their drop was just one…
Is it time to re-visit the Hill’s market? It’s almost hard to credit the total change that we’ve seen in UK politics in the past few weeks but less than a month ago many PBers, including me got bets on at 7/4 on the market from William Hill Politics that Brown would be the first of the main party leaders to be out. Then the favourite was Nick Clegg with David Cameron the long-shot. Now prices have shifted a fair…
Will the LAB/LD switchers will stick with Cameron? One of the great features about the pollsters that past vote weight is that you are able to look at the detailed tables and see the cross-party dynamics. Interestingly the broad figures that we get each month from the ComRes, ICM and Populus are in the same ball park and you can get a generalised view of what’s been going on. Reproduced above is an extract from the full tables highlighting how…
CONSERVATIVES 43% (+2) LABOUR 28% (-4) LIB DEMS 16% (+1) Brown’s party now trailing by 15 points As ConservativeHome has broken the embargo I will do so as well. Tim Montgomerie should not have done that. See note below. The ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Indy is now out and will add to the gloom at Brown Central. For the party’s share is down to 28% – the first time it has dropped below the 30 mark in any poll from…
Will Netanyahu/Obama be any better for the peace process than Olmert/Bush? The lockstep between American and Israeli politics was graphically illustrated earlier this week, with IDF forces leaving Gaza as Obama was being inaugurated in Washington, Israel having “made hay while the sun shone” during the dying days of the Bush administration. From a purely Israeli viewpoint, the Gaza operation has probably been deemed more successful than the disastrous Lebanon war of 2006, but from my personal perspective, if Israel…
More bad news for Brown in the Sundays 2009 now very much has the feel of 1996 – a government holding onto power in the hopes that “something will turn up”, but now looking increasingly likely that they will, like John Major’s Conservatives, be boxed in all the way to a May 2010 election which they will lose heavily. Kicking off the bleak news for the government this weekend was of course Friday morning’s announcement that the UK economy is…
Now there’s “Cash for Laws” and Labour.. Who can forgot how the ongoing revelations about “cash for questions” totally undermined the final period of the last Tory government and added considerably to the image of “sleaze” which has taken a long time to shake off. Well the most striking feature from a quick look at tomorrow’s front pages is the Sunday Times which looks as though it has found a Labour equivalent. Could this do the same for Mr. Brown’s…