Is it time to re-visit the Hill’s market? It’s almost hard to credit the total change that we’ve seen in UK politics in the past few weeks but less than a month ago many PBers, including me got bets on at 7/4 on the market from William Hill Politics that Brown would be the first of the main party leaders to be out. Then the favourite was Nick Clegg with David Cameron the long-shot. Now prices have shifted a fair…
Will the LAB/LD switchers will stick with Cameron? One of the great features about the pollsters that past vote weight is that you are able to look at the detailed tables and see the cross-party dynamics. Interestingly the broad figures that we get each month from the ComRes, ICM and Populus are in the same ball park and you can get a generalised view of what’s been going on. Reproduced above is an extract from the full tables highlighting how…
CONSERVATIVES 43% (+2) LABOUR 28% (-4) LIB DEMS 16% (+1) Brown’s party now trailing by 15 points As ConservativeHome has broken the embargo I will do so as well. Tim Montgomerie should not have done that. See note below. The ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Indy is now out and will add to the gloom at Brown Central. For the party’s share is down to 28% – the first time it has dropped below the 30 mark in any poll from…
Will Netanyahu/Obama be any better for the peace process than Olmert/Bush? The lockstep between American and Israeli politics was graphically illustrated earlier this week, with IDF forces leaving Gaza as Obama was being inaugurated in Washington, Israel having “made hay while the sun shone” during the dying days of the Bush administration. From a purely Israeli viewpoint, the Gaza operation has probably been deemed more successful than the disastrous Lebanon war of 2006, but from my personal perspective, if Israel…
More bad news for Brown in the Sundays 2009 now very much has the feel of 1996 – a government holding onto power in the hopes that “something will turn up”, but now looking increasingly likely that they will, like John Major’s Conservatives, be boxed in all the way to a May 2010 election which they will lose heavily. Kicking off the bleak news for the government this weekend was of course Friday morning’s announcement that the UK economy is…
Now there’s “Cash for Laws” and Labour.. Who can forgot how the ongoing revelations about “cash for questions” totally undermined the final period of the last Tory government and added considerably to the image of “sleaze” which has taken a long time to shake off. Well the most striking feature from a quick look at tomorrow’s front pages is the Sunday Times which looks as though it has found a Labour equivalent. Could this do the same for Mr. Brown’s…
PB’s “The Money Says Index”: CON Maj 56 seats Even though we have not had any news polls since the MORI survey on Monday the mood on the spread betting markets has continued to be away from Labour and onto the Tories. This morning’s changes bring the spreads to this – with changes on three days ago CON 350-356 (+4): LAB 226-232 (-4): LD 42-45 (nc). On the Monday before last, a few minutes before the January Populus poll came…
What’s the electoral impact of the Harman “U-Turn”? The Guardian is running with a story that ‘fear of [a] backlash’ has forced the Government to abandon plans for so-called ‘all-blackshortlists’ in its new Equalities Bill, sponsored by Harriet Harman. The Bill is already a target for those who would claim the codification of ‘political correctness gone mad’ and Thursday’s close second place for the BNP in the East Wickham ward (Bexley) by-election seems to have been the straw on the…