What are the chances of a recovery? I always think it is important to look at the polls as a block rather than just highlighting single surveys. The above from Wikipedia shows the general election voting polls so far this month. As can be seen there are fewer LAB leads of 20% or more but we have yet to see a margin down into single figures. it is reckoned that for a majority LAB needs a margin of about 7%…
I have never been really confident that Joe Biden will seek a second term in next year’s presidential election. The reason is fairly obvious – he is just too old and if he were to serve a full second term he would be 86 by the time he handled a handed over to his successor. The fact that he has currently indicated that he is staying in the race has meant that there are very few Democrats ready to challenge…
But still odds-on favourite I find the Mid-Beds by-election hard to read and as yet I have made a bet. We’ve got to see how things develop once the election date is decided – something that can’t happen until Parliament is sitting. LAB, of course, came second here at GE2019 and this doesn’t seem to have helped them in the eyes of punters. We could start to see a Red-Orange clash for which party is best able to beat the…
Punters think he’s a 70%+ chance for the nomination On the face of it we are heading for a Trump Biden rerun in the 2024 presidential election. It would appear that the only way that 81 year-old Joe can defend the presidency is if his opponent is Trump. If it becomes clear that the controversial winner of WH2020 is not going to get it then it is hard to see Biden hanging on to his role. We are of course…
Ipsos have published some fascinating polling on a range of metrics but the one, that in my humble opinion,we should focus on is the above chart which focuses on the favourability of political parties. Just look at that (net) unfavourable score for the Conservative party and then compare and contrast with the net favourability figure for the Labour party. If things remain like this on election day then the Tories are for a grim night because this polling results lends…
As most PBers know I live in Bedford only about a mile and a half from the Mid Beds constituency where following the resignation of Nadine Dorries there is to be a by-election. This has been a long time coming and the outgoing Tory MP has not helped her party’s reputation by first announcing her resignation “with immediate effect” and then taking 76 days to actually do so. Her resignation letter is full of vitriol and could have an impact…
So finally Nadine Dorries does resign as an MP to trigger the most anticipated by election since Eastleigh 2013. I would recommend you all to read her resignation letter, it is without doubt the most embittered letter I’ve seen in politics. Click here to read the letter in full. She really doesn’t like Rishi Sunak, an adjective doesn’t exist to accurately describe the depth and feeling of her hatred and contempt for Sunak. On to the by election, I think…