CONSERVATIVES 40% (-1) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (nc) Will this revive early election date speculation? A new YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and throughout yesterday provides a lot of reassurance for Labour after the momentous statement by Chancellor Darling on Monday. The splits show almost most no change on the last survey from the firm and runs against much of the so called “informed” comment that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the…
How will Gord and Dave do tomorrow? In view of its importance in setting out the battlegrounds for the general election it’s hardly surprising that the political day has been dominated by skirmishes over yesterday’s statement by Chancellor Darling. We’ve seen the Tories arguing that the detail of the plans means that people earning as little as £19,000 a year will be worse off and questions over whether the new 45% tax rate will actually bring in more revenue. All…
Or are punters just wishful thinking? If the betting markets have got this one right then we should be seeing the post-budget polls showing a move away from Labour and for the Tories to be increasing their lead again. The chart shows just one market – the price converted into an implied probability of Labour securing an overall majority at the general election. Other general election markets have seen similar reactions with gamblers seeming to think that yesterday’s key statement…
But will it look differently by the weekend? A theme that’s taken up by many of the papers this morning is that yesterday’s statement by Chancellor Darling marked the end of New Labour – that creation fourteen and a half years ago that became such a powerful electoral force. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown made their party electable and led them out of the political wilderness through three stunning general election victories. Yesterday the party reverted to a more traditional…
Was this really the most socialist PBR since Sunny Jim? So with as much high drama as could be summoned, the Chancellor has delivered his Pre-Budget report, with the key measures of cutting VAT to 15% and raising the top-level of Income Tax not a surprise to anyone who reads the newspapers. The Shadow Chancellor issued a stinging rebuttal, though whilst the passion of the performance was undeniable, critics are characterising the lack of policy as meaning that the Tories…
Darling’s statement – the continuation thread Alistair Darling has given his Pre-Budget Report speech, with the highlights being largely as expected: VAT cut from 17.5% to 15% for 13 months beginning on Monday, and an increase in the basic rate of Income Tax to 45% for those earning over £150,000. What had not been leaked was the increase in National Insurance Contributions by 0.5% from April 2011 which has been targetted by George Osborne in his rebuttal. Similarly, I would…
Is today the start of the election campaign? Make no mistake: the “leaks” that we’ve been seeing ahead of this afternoon’s PBR statement by the Chancellor have nothing to do with smart journalism or a desire by ministers to be open and accountable. This is all deliberate, well planned and is about shaping the environment in which the statement is received and, of course, trying to get one over on George Osborne. And before you shout that this is unfair…
Will the PBR make the media narrative a reality? It’s a measure of how completely potty the media has become in recent weeks that on the eve of the the PBR and all the talk of an early general election that there’s been an almost total news black-out on yesterday’s ICM showing the Tories on 42%, Labour on 31% with the Lib Dems scoring 19%. You would have thought that every little bit of polling data would have been devoured,…