Is Glasgow NE going to be a Glasgow East or a Glenrothes?

Is Glasgow NE going to be a Glasgow East or a Glenrothes?

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Wikipedia Is Labour good value at 8/13? So far I’ve not got excited about the pending by-election in Glasgow NE – the seat made vacant by the resignation of the speaker, Michael Martin. Because of the tradition that major parties do not contest the Speaker’s seat there is no direct comparison with what happened at the general election. Martin stood as the speaker not as Labour candidate. He got 53.3% of the votes with the SNP, who did stand, in…

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Down Memory Lane: September 2007

Down Memory Lane: September 2007

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YouGov: September 28th 2007 CON 32 LAB 43 LD 15 Populus: September 27 2007 CON 31 LAB 41 LD 17 Ipsos-MORI: September 26 2007 CON 31 LAB 44 LD 15 YouGov: September 25 2007 CON 33 LAB 44 LD 13 Ipsos-Mori: September 22 2007 CON 34 LAB 42 LD 14 ICM: September 21 2007 CON 33 LAB 39 LD 19

Is Labour losing the battle to be called “progressive”?

Is Labour losing the battle to be called “progressive”?

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PoliticsHome Why’s Mandy’s message not getting through? Early last week we saw a furious outburst from Peter Mandelson following the use by his old foe George Osborne of the term “progressive” to describe the Conservatives. We ran a thread on it. This is a description that seems to touch a raw nerve within the Labour movement which was probably the back-ground to Mandy’s move. So what will the parties make of this new poll from PoliticsHome? For if Labour thought…

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Will Hannan/NHS end up like the Coulson “revelations”?

Will Hannan/NHS end up like the Coulson “revelations”?

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Is Labour too desperate to find a magic bullet? Looking back over the past few weeks it struck me that there are strong similarities between the opposition attacks on the Daniel Hannan-NHS comments and the response to the Guardian stories at the start of July over what happened at the News of the World when Cameron’s communications chief, Andy Coulson, was editor. With both the core information had been known about for a long period before the story broke. Everybody…

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Should Labour fight the general election like this?

Should Labour fight the general election like this?

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By-elections.co.uk Is there mileage in using some of the C&N rhetoric? Last week I finalised a chapter on by-elections that I’m contributing to a book on the general election that’s coming out in the autumn. During my researches I found this great site which is building up a collection of campaign materials from almost all by-election campaigns of recent times. From going through the literature you can get a real feel for how each of battles progressed and one that…

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Is 4/1 too short for the Next Chancellor to be Labour?

Is 4/1 too short for the Next Chancellor to be Labour?

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How much threat is Darling’s position under? Since the Summer reshuffle when Alistair Darling apparently successfully fought off an attempt to remove him from the Treasury, speculation about his future has died down. Despite that, the odds on the next Chancellor being from the Labour party remain significantly shorter than Labour’s prospects at the next election. The Next Chancellor market on Betfair is not a particularly well traded one but it does have only a small overround so is fairly…

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How good are these ICM polling numbers for Mandy?

How good are these ICM polling numbers for Mandy?

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Sunday Mirror Could he in fact turn some voters off his party? In its coverage of its ICM poll this morning the Sunday Mirror makes the findings about the public’s view of Peter Mandelson the main feature. Those surveyed were asked who they thought “would be best to lead Labour if Mr Brown stood down”. Amongst all voters it was David Miliband on 27%, Jack Straw on 26%, Alas Johnson 15% and Peter Mandelson on 14%. But amongst those voting…

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UPDATE: Conflicting trends from ICM and YouGov

UPDATE: Conflicting trends from ICM and YouGov

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CON 43(+2)) LAB 26 (-1) LD 19(-1) But the changes are all within the margin of error The poll shares above are compared with the past ICM poll which was completed on July 11th and in the Guardian a couple of days later. Although the changes are small and all within the margin of error they will provide a little bit of a boost to Team Cameron and add to the gloom at Brown Central. I’m coming to the view…

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