UPDATE: Conflicting trends from ICM and YouGov

UPDATE: Conflicting trends from ICM and YouGov

CON 43(+2)) LAB 26 (-1) LD 19(-1)

But the changes are all within the margin of error

The poll shares above are compared with the past ICM poll which was completed on July 11th and in the Guardian a couple of days later.

Although the changes are small and all within the margin of error they will provide a little bit of a boost to Team Cameron and add to the gloom at Brown Central.

I’m coming to the view that the share that matters most is Labour’s. If they can edge back to 29/30 then the general election becomes more of a contest. This, alas, is in the other direction

Polling in August can be odd because there’s little political news happening and samples can be skewed by people being on holiday. My broad view is that we’ll have to wait until the impact of the party conference have worked themselves out of the system before we get a really clear view – and that mean mid-October.

Another poll is expected tonight which might give a different picture.

UPDATE: Apparently there’s a boost for PM4PM also in the poll. No details yet be he’s said to be in second place.

UPDATE: But YouGov has some goodish news for Labour

CON 42% (+1) LAB 28% (+1) LD 19% (+1)
We’ve now got the August YouGov poll from the Sunday Times and its figures are not that much different from what we saw from the same pollster in the Daily Telegraph at the end of July.

My comparisons, like all on PB, are with the last published survey from the firm and NOT the last poll in the commissioning publication. It’s for this reason that the comparative numbers above are different from the ones being quoted by the Sunday Times.

Essentially the picture from YouGov is one of little change except that the share going to “others” continues to be on the decline.

Let me underline what I noted above – all the changes we have seen tonight in both sets of surveys are within the margins of error. They are both broadly presenting the same picture.

Mike Smithson

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