The new series with the emphasis on predicting the outcome One of the frustrations of trying to predict or bet on the general election outcome is that when a poll is published we are reliant for what’s asked and how it is reported on the media organisation that has commissioned it. Quite often significant detail is not included and it can be days before we have it. For us the key numbers are the voting intention ones and we are…
But the odds for the CDU/CSU + FDP are drifting So, a narrow re-election for Stoltenberg and the centre-left coalition in Norway, with its four (blonde) female party leaders and the Liberal leader resigning after the party was reduced to just two seats. Did anyone back Jens at the short odds-on prices? Next up is Germany, which votes a week today. Merkel trades at 1.08 (1/12) in the “next Chancellor” market on Betfair which I think should be pretty much…
Indy on Sunday Would things look so good with a different leader? John Rentoul in the Indy on Sunday (HatTip Wibbler on previous thread) raises something that I’ve been meaning to look at for some time – the over-reliance that the Tories have on their leader, David Cameron. Just look at the historical polls – both voting intention and approval ratings – and its clear that the party has not been led in recent times by anybody who connects in…
And when exactly will Rhodri Morgan step down? It has been public knowledge since July 2005 that Rhodri Morgan, First Minister in the Welsh Assembly Government, would step down from that post at some point during 2009. Nearing his 70th birthday at the end of September, he has left himself few obvious opportunities with only the final three months of the year to meet that expectation. It has been suggested that he might announce at the Labour Party Conference in…
PoliticsHome But might it help incumbents against the Tories? The above, from a new PoliticsHome survey, is a finding that we see in one form or another ahead of every general election – the readiness of supporters of other parties to consider voting for the LDs if they had a serious chance of winning in their constituency. On the positive side for Clegg’s party as they gather in Bournemouth for their annual conference is the response of Labour supporters with…
But isn’t 4/5 looking like good value for money? According to Ladbrokes this afternoon there’s been a fair bit of activity on their Bedford mayoral by election market but they have not laid a single bet on the Tories. As a result the Lib Dems have moved in from 2/1 to 5/4 while the Tories have eased from 1/2 to 4/5. Labour is still at 10/1. Clearly the manner of Parvez Akhtar’s selection on Monday has not been welcomed in…
More of Marf’s work can be found at LondonSketchbook.com
More detail from Populus adds to the gloom It was almost exactly three years ago, while Tony Blair was still Labour leader, that I did a thread – “Why can’t Gordon do the “sincerity thingâ€? – on Brown’s inability to sound convincing when it is clear that he is telling porkies. I suggested that this was his greatest weakness. That observed that for much of the time, of course, politics is about organised hypocrisy and that “a key quality in…