How do PBers view the coming general election?

How do PBers view the coming general election?

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Please use this thread for discussion on UK politics and the previous one for the German General Election Mark Gill of Woodnewton has produced the above chart from the latest Populus and I wondered how Pbers would have responded. Whether you are a lurker or a someone who post comments please put your view below. What’s your prediction for the coming UK general election? CON majority of 100 or more CON majority less than 100 Hung parliament – CON largest…

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Germany 2009 Election Night Special

Germany 2009 Election Night Special

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Die Zeit ZDF Seats projection CDU/CSU + FDP = 320 seats = new govt ZDF Exit poll: CDU/CSU 33.5 SPD 23.5 FDP 14.5 Linke 13 Greens 10 Welcome to PB’s coverage of German election night 2009, after what’s been seen as a generally dull campaign. Despite good weather in Germany, early afternoon indications were that turnout was several points down on 2005. Useful links: Official results Live market prices ARD ZDF Election.de Double Carpet

Boost for Nick & Dave from the pollster that can’t be arsed

Boost for Nick & Dave from the pollster that can’t be arsed

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CON 40 (+4) LAB 25 (+1) LD 22 (+5) All parties see increases from BPIX/YouGov Thanks to “Me” on the ICM thread for picking up today’s BPIX/YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday. The shares above are compared with the last poll from the firm which appeared on August 23rd and had a massive 23% share for others. It seemed out of line then but this latest poll is very much showing the same picture as the other post-Lib Dem…

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Is this why the Tories have dropped a few points?

Is this why the Tories have dropped a few points?

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BBC news programmes search results Is it simply the “Cameron being invisible” effect again? It’s more than three and a half years since I put forward the theory that a key driver of the voting intention poll numbers is the level of coverage that David Cameron has been getting on the TV in the week or so before the survey’s fieldwork takes place. What’s interesting is that this seems to hold good even if the story is a negative one….

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Lib Dems get 4 point ICM boost in a week

Lib Dems get 4 point ICM boost in a week

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CON 40 (-3) LAB 26 (nc) LD 23 (+4) But will it be there after the conference season? After last night’s YouGov poll showing a three point increase in the Lib Dem total there’s a new ICM poll out for the News of the World which is showing the same broad movement – Labour at a standstill, Nick Clegg’s party up with the Tories down. Another trend, not seen by YouGov but reinforced by ICM, is the continued decline of…

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Will Obama be a One-Term Wonder?

Will Obama be a One-Term Wonder?

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Could healthcare be his ‘No We Can’t’ moment? It’s coming up to a year since the last US presidential election and the shine has come off Obama’s presidency quite rapidly. His approval ratings with Rasmussen went negative during July having started off at around +30%. That’s a measure of those with a strong opinion rather than the balance of all expressing a positive or negative view (which is just about equal), but in a country where the turnout is comparatively…

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So was it a good Lib Dem Conference?

So was it a good Lib Dem Conference?

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CON 39% (-2) LAB 26% (-1) LD 20%(+3) Good news for Clegg’s party from YouGov A YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Telegraph will bring some welcome relief for the Lib Dems with a three point boost in their rating.  Both the Conservatives and Labour are down, with the Conservatives dropping back below 40%.  The changes are against the Sunday Times poll, conducted by YouGov and published on 11th September.  All the changes are within the margin of error but only just in the…

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A special Sean Fear Friday Slot

A special Sean Fear Friday Slot

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Sean looks ahead to London’s locals next May The next London Borough Elections are due in May 2010, probably on the same day as the General Election. In 2006, the Conservatives led strongly, winning fifteen boroughs outright, compared to eight for Labour, and four for the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives’ lead, in terms of vote share, was less impressive, winning 35%, compared to 28% for Labour, and 21% for the Liberal Democrats. If, as seems likely, the Conservatives win a…

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