CON 40% (+3) LAB 26% (-4) LD 20%(-1) Labour’s YouGov tracker deficit doubles After the euphoria amongst Labour supporters last night and some corresponding gloom from Tories today’s YouGov daily tracker moves the party shares back to the sort of territory that we’ve come to expect in recent months – Labour in the mid-20s and the Tories in the low 40s. Most of the online questionnaires would have been filled in last night after a day that was dominated by…
Daily Express How would a referendum U-turn go down in Manchester? Tomorrow the Irish vote in their second referendum on the EU Lisbon treaty with the results being known the following day – just as delegates to the Conservative conference begin arriving in Manchester. The story featured above from the Daily Express gives a sense of the minefield Cameron might have to negotiate should, as expected the Irish vote YES. With the Czech government said to be on the point…
Is this a taste of the next eight months? Today’s Sun gives a firmer indication of what the paper’s change of allegiance will mean in terms how the paper intends to carry on its political coverage in the run-up to the general election. Just look at the way it covers Harriet Harman’s attack on the paper. If this is a taster then we are in for an interesting time. Quite what the electoral impact will be is hard to measure…
Why I’m liking the tracker I’m getting to rather like the YouGov tracker simply it provides an opportunity to test my theories about what drives the polls. I’ve always argued here that so much of poll findings outside election campaigns is driven by which party or politician is getting the most attention. For most people are not really that interested in politics. So far the tracker seems to have been backing this up. The Tories have hardly been heard from…
CON 37% (-3) LAB 30% (+1) LD 21%(+3) But most of fieldwork took place BEFORE the Sun’s news? Peter Kellner has just been in touch with news of today YouGov tracker poll. He emphasises that “most fieldwork reflects impact of yesterday evening TV news coverage but not this mornings papers. Tomorrow’s figures will measure full impact of media coverage, Sun switch etc”. It’s important to note that the numbers we are seeing each are essentially a reaction to the news…
PaddyPower Do the terms of the market make it a good bet? Thanks to StJohn on the previous thread for spotting this new market fromPaddyPower on who, of a named list, will be the first to call on Gordon Brown to step down. The chances are, as far as I can see, that none of them would go public and the likelihood is that Brown will leave of his own accord – probably after a general election defeat. But under…
What will today’s news do to YouGov’s daily tracker? In trying to assess the political influence of the Sun’s switch Labour MP, Nick Palmer, made this astute comment on the previous thread:- “..It occurs to me that the daily YouGovs are going to give us an excellent opportunity to test the power of the Sun endorsement to shift things. The YouGov taken today and reported tomorrow will show the impact of the speech plus a little bit of Sun. The…
Will the Sun’s move dispirit the party even more? Labour’s big remaining hope as it entered the conference season was that Brown’s speech would exceed the low expectations and provide the platform for some sort of recovery. Last year the PM’s “no time for a novice” phrase caught the mood of the time and for the final quarter of 2008 Cameron’s Tories were on the back foot. A lot was riding on being able to do the same again –…