The spreads move back to all-time Labour low

The spreads move back to all-time Labour low

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SportingIndex Punters seem to be following the tracker Before Gordon Brown’s conference speech began to affect YouGov’s daily tracker ratings the SportingIndex spead market on the number of seats the parties will win at the next election had moved to what I think was a record low of 198 – 203 seats. Immediately after the the first poll to take the speech into account had Labour just seven points behind the market moved back up again a couple of notches….

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How voting splits according to newspaper type

How voting splits according to newspaper type

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YouGov Will those Sun shares change as we get to polling day? In the aftermath of the Sun’s switch from Labour there was quite a bit of focus on how influential newspapers were on their readers – but little of it was backed by hard evidence. In the data from the latest YouGov tracker the pollster featured the above set of cross-tabs which I do not recall seeing before – linking newspaper type to voting intention. As can be seen…

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And tonight’s Marf cartoon

And tonight’s Marf cartoon

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So should Boris have gone on Eastenders? Overshadowed, at least in the eyes of political anoraks, by the Labour conference, the Sun’s ditching of Labour, and the daily tracking polls the big political story for many people tonight has been Boris’s cameo appearance on BBC1 Eastenders. It will certainly raise his profile and, no doubt, will reinforce the “good old Boris” rhetoric that we saw in his election last year. But should a political figure do this? I like the…

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What a difference a day makes?

What a difference a day makes?

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CON 40% (+3) LAB 26% (-4) LD 20%(-1) Labour’s YouGov tracker deficit doubles After the euphoria amongst Labour supporters last night and some corresponding gloom from Tories today’s YouGov daily tracker moves the party shares back to the sort of territory that we’ve come to expect in recent months – Labour in the mid-20s and the Tories in the low 40s. Most of the online questionnaires would have been filled in last night after a day that was dominated by…

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Is Cameron preparing to take on his party over Lisbon?

Is Cameron preparing to take on his party over Lisbon?

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Daily Express How would a referendum U-turn go down in Manchester? Tomorrow the Irish vote in their second referendum on the EU Lisbon treaty with the results being known the following day – just as delegates to the Conservative conference begin arriving in Manchester. The story featured above from the Daily Express gives a sense of the minefield Cameron might have to negotiate should, as expected the Irish vote YES. With the Czech government said to be on the point…

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Was the Sun just following its readers?

Was the Sun just following its readers?

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Is this a taste of the next eight months? Today’s Sun gives a firmer indication of what the paper’s change of allegiance will mean in terms how the paper intends to carry on its political coverage in the run-up to the general election. Just look at the way it covers Harriet Harman’s attack on the paper. If this is a taster then we are in for an interesting time. Quite what the electoral impact will be is hard to measure…

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Can you predict the tracker poll for Friday October 9th?

Can you predict the tracker poll for Friday October 9th?

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Why I’m liking the tracker I’m getting to rather like the YouGov tracker simply it provides an opportunity to test my theories about what drives the polls. I’ve always argued here that so much of poll findings outside election campaigns is driven by which party or politician is getting the most attention. For most people are not really that interested in politics. So far the tracker seems to have been backing this up. The Tories have hardly been heard from…

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Labour close the gap to 7% with the YouGov tracker.

Labour close the gap to 7% with the YouGov tracker.

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CON 37% (-3) LAB 30% (+1) LD 21%(+3) But most of fieldwork took place BEFORE the Sun’s news? Peter Kellner has just been in touch with news of today YouGov tracker poll. He emphasises that “most fieldwork reflects impact of yesterday evening TV news coverage but not this mornings papers. Tomorrow’s figures will measure full impact of media coverage, Sun switch etc”. It’s important to note that the numbers we are seeing each are essentially a reaction to the news…

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