politicalbetting.com

I have raised this before about current polling and there has not been any real change in the fact that a significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters continue to tell pollsters that they don’t know. The chart based on the last Opinium poll numbers shows the current breakdown of voting intention by those who backed the Tories at the last general election. As can be seen 24% of those who voted for Johnsone’s party in December 2019 are currently telling…

Read More Read More

Last week’s locals weren’t quite as good as many within the Labour Party hoped but there is little doubt that the party is in good position to win back power at the next election. The big question is whether Starmer will have an overall majority or not and on that there are differing views. Thus in the immediate aftermath of the May 4th results, the leading commentator and analyst John Rentoul was reporting Prof John Curtice that there would be…

Read More Read More

The big question over the Archbichop’s attack on Sunak’s small boats clampdown is whether it impacts public opinion and is likely to encourage other opponents of to step up their opposition. The most recent YouGov poll on the issue had 50% backing Sunak and 36% opposing. My guess is that the split will be tighter following his intervention. It could also impact on the courts and how judges deal with the cases that are likely to arise. It also put…

Read More Read More

It is again time to review what the “intellectually challenged from the neck up” party (© Joanna Cherry) – or the SNP as it is usually known – is up to. Having finally found an auditor (though, rather embarrassingly for a pro-independence party, there was not one auditor anywhere in Scotland willing or able to take on the job) the Holyrood government has decided to reform the Scottish criminal justice system. In one of his previous roles as Justice Minister,…

Read More Read More

The people have spoken, at least those who vote at local elections. And the basic message is clear: ‘Tories out’. With rare exceptions, the Tories got battered up and down England, and while Labour aren’t at the heights they hit in the mid-90s the Tories are at the same depths. Two questions arise. When will we get an election? And will Rishi Sunak fight it? On the second question, I think he almost certainly will. The Johnsonites in Parliament now…

Read More Read More

I am not a republican and never have been but I do think that James O’Brien has a point here. This makes me feel very uneasy and I am concerned about the changes in the law on protests that the Tories have brought in. Mike Smithson

The latest polling table sets out what has been the most recent movement in the polls – they are just about all showing leads in the teens for Starmer’s party – a far cry from February when almost all the firms had gaps of 20%+, Running alongside this shift has been the improvement in Sunak’s leader ratings. Although he still trails Starmer in most polls the gap is nothing like what it was. The next step could be single-digit leads…

Read More Read More