Am I right to put more money on Farage?

Am I right to put more money on Farage?

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Has Bercow’s wife made it easier for the UKIP leader? Could today’s news that the Speaker’s wife, Sally Bercow, has been selected to stand for Labour in next year’s London elections add to her husbands problems in fighting off the challenge from Nigel Farage in Buckingham? For her action might just provide the peg for the UKIP campaign to persuade Tory supporters that they “have permission” not to vote for the Speaker who, by tradition, is not opposed by the…

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Is this why you should bet on a 38+ by-election turnout?

Is this why you should bet on a 38+ by-election turnout?

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Does Glenrothes point the way for November by elections? The weather reports from Glasgow point to a pretty nasty day as voters go to the polls in what is likely to be the last big test of opinion before the general election. This has led to some pundits to suggest that we are in for a low turnout and, indeed the Ladbrokes price on it being under 38% has tightened since the market went up. I’m not convinced and have…

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Does the Daily Mirror still have much influence?

Does the Daily Mirror still have much influence?

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Daily Mirror October 10th 1974 – Wikimedia Commons Can it get more votes out for Brown’s party? When I started my journalistic career in 1968 the paper ambitious young graduates aspired to work for was the Mirror. It had a circulation topping four million and until the arrival of Murdoch’s Sun was the biggest selling paper in the UK. It had built up a great reputation for covering serious serious stories in a popular manner and certainly had a big…

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What do we think of these polling questions?

What do we think of these polling questions?

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Do they give a fair sense of opinion? Regulars on PB will know that I generally detest the findings from non-voting intention questions in polls. So much is dependent on how the question are formulated and the order in which there are put. I am sure that we all recall from that wonderful “Yes Prime Minister” sequence when Sir Humphrey managed to devise two sets of questions on conscription which led to entirely different outcomes. So what are we to…

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The PB SUPER SIX Predictions – part 2

The PB SUPER SIX Predictions – part 2

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Are they on the money or not? This is the second part of the so-called “PB SUPER SIX PREDICTIONS – the general election seat bets from half a dozen of the leading political punters on the site. They are Peter the Punter, Richard Nabavi, Peter from Putney, StJohn, AntiFrank and ScottP who between have got bets on in nearly ninety separate constituencies. One of those on this evening’s list is Morley and Outwood – where I’ve punted quite heavily at…

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Is this a man who could cross sides?

Is this a man who could cross sides?

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Guardian What would be the impact of a defection? One of the early signs of what was to come from Brown Central was the ferocious campaign to undermine and eventually secure the sacking of Frank Field at the start of the Labour government. He had been brought in by Blair to “think the unthinkable” about welfare reform until the Brownies got there way. This is recounted at length in Tom Bower’s brilliant biography on Brown and the man who is…

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Should we focus more on negative voting?

Should we focus more on negative voting?

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Is this what ultimately will be the clincher? As we get closer to elections, it seems, there is one hardy topic that always emerges – that of the impact of negative campaigning and we saw in 1997, 2001 and 2005 how much of the Labour message was primarily about demonising the Tories. But what about negative voting? Do negative messages chime with what some of the electorate wants and what’s the impact? So does it matter in the current context…

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Would Labour do better if Miliband replaced Brown?

Would Labour do better if Miliband replaced Brown?

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Could this be the game-changer that Labour needs? The news that David Miliband has pulled himself out of the running for the EU High Representative post has added to the speculation that he might once again be considering a Labour leadership bid BEFORE the general election. What would be the impact of this? Is Labour’s unpopularity largely down to Brown and would the party led by Miliband stand a better chance in the election? Certainly there are many who think…

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