Is this the man to take over from Gord?

Is this the man to take over from Gord?

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Could he become Labour’s William Hague? One of the problems of Mr. Brown’s style of government is that he makes most of the big announcements and his top team get very little public exposure. So if there’s something big to say about health then it’s not the Secretary of State responsible who gets the lime-light. Not only does this mean that outside three or four figures there’s relatively little public awareness of the second string of party figures – but…

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Who is going to win the 2010 polling race?

Who is going to win the 2010 polling race?

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Now you can bet on the most accurate final poll? Aside from the party HQs the most tense places to be on election night will be at the six polling firms which carry out monthly surveys of political opinion in Britain. How close were they with their final poll? For they all know only too well that this will be the one set of numbers that will be flung back at them for years to come. And within the industry…

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Could UKIP switchers cost Dave his majority?

Could UKIP switchers cost Dave his majority?

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But will it be the same in the marginals? Just looking at the detailed data for the latest ComRes poll and we see the dynamic that is causing the Tory totals to fall and is putting into question what seemed to be the forgone conclusion of a Tory majority. For helpfully the firm is the only one of the pollsters where it’s possible to see the switching to the minor parties from what respondents said they did at the general…

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Labour close the gap to 10 points with ComRes

Labour close the gap to 10 points with ComRes

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CON 37%(39) LAB 27%(25) LD 20%(17) OTHERS 16% (19) But have the seat calculators got it right? There’s a new poll out tonight from ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent which has the Tory lead down to ten points but with the Lib Dem continuing to do well. For the Tories another poll having them below the 40 mark might add to the jitters as we enter the run in period to the election. Only ICM of the six firms that regularly…

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Will day-time counts mean we have to rely more on this?

Will day-time counts mean we have to rely more on this?

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Is the wise strategy not to bet on exit polls? If there is a huge increase in the number of day-time counts, as many are predicting, then the general election exit poll is going to become even more important. For its projections will be what will dominate perceptions of the election for several hours and maybe into the following morning. Arrangements, I understand, have been made for just one such survey to be mounted which will feed all the main…

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Remember this poll – exactly a year ago today?

Remember this poll – exactly a year ago today?

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CON 37 LAB 36 LD 17 ComRes: Nov 30 2008 UKPollingReport Whatever happened to Brown’s Bank Bailout Bounce? On November 30 2008, precisely a year ago today, ComRes finished their monthly poll for the Independent which had Labour just one point behind – figures which suggested that Mr. Brown was within a whisker of an overall Labour majority. This followed an extraordinary couple of months after his widely acknowledged role in the bank bailout – not just for the UK…

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Which party should be most pleased by this?

Which party should be most pleased by this?

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YouGov/Citizenship Foundation But how much importance can we attach to it? Thanks to Gabble for spotting that YouGov have put up on their web-site the result of a 4,000 sample poll of 14 – 25 years olds which was carried out over the past fortnight. The dataset runs to an enormous 200 pages and covers a whole range of issues about this age group’s view of the politics. There was a voting intention question which asked “Which TWO or THREE,…

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Are UKIP and the Lisbon driving the Tory poll decline?

Are UKIP and the Lisbon driving the Tory poll decline?

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BBC news – Nov 4th Can Dave win back the Tory doubters? All seventeen polls published between the end of the Tory Party conference and Cameron’s dropping of his pledge to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty had the Conservatives on at least 40%; of the eight published since then, only twice has the Tory share broken into the forties. Two conversations I’ve had in the last week give anecdotal evidence that Cameron’s move has gone down badly in…

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