The latest WH2024 betting
It’s looking like Biden v Trump part 2
The betting money goes on 4 CON by-election losses
There’s now only a fortnight’s campaigning left in the three July 20th by-elections where the Tories are defending all the seats. Mid Beds might have a betting market but so far Nadine Dorries is not resigning although nearly a month ago she said she was going with immediate effect. Her delayed resignation has become something of an issue in the seat and this hasn’t helped the Tory cause. You don’t go public like Dorries did with her June 9th “resignation”…
An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?
We are getting a lot of reports at the moment about sitting Tory MPs announcing that they won’t be seeking re-election at the general election. According to the House of Commons library the total is currently 44 with the total edging up all the time. The current total for all parties is 69. Clearly, many MPs can read the way the polling has gone against the Tories compared with the party’s 12% GB lead at the last election. It doesn’t…
The concerns of LAB voters compared with CON ones
I find the above chart absolutely fascinating particularly when there is a large divergence between the parties. Whille the economy tops for both parties healthcare is so much more important to LAB ones than Tories. It is the reverse with immigration which Tories rate significantly more. Other areas of difference include housing, the environment and Britain leaving the EU. For LAB voters the latter barely registers. You can see how this will underpin the general election campaigns It is important…
Mortgage payments increasingly becoming a big issue
Not quite the worst but getting close This chart from the Spectator sets out what is increasingly becoming a problem for Sunak’s government and unless there is an easing ahead of the election the Tory seat losses could be very high indeed. Making historical comparisons is always tricky and I like the approach here – how it impacts on first-time buyers. Sunak will be hoping for something to change between now and election day whenever he decides to call it….
Can the LDs become the third party once again?
An interesting element of the next election on which Ladbrokes have a market is whether the LDs can win more seats than the SNP. The bookie rates this being the case as being tighter than evens. The party had been the third in number of MPs for many decades until GE2015 at the end of the coalition when its seat total was reduced to single figures. At the same time the SNP, in the aftermath of the IndyRef took 56…
Are the SNP too wee, too poor, too stupid to fight an election?
One of the stories lost in the maelstrom of Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest last month was that in the first three months of 2023 the SNP received just £4,000 (yes four thousand pounds) in donations. As The National pointed out ‘The SNP’s money all came from one donor, James Murdoch from Strathearn, and was received on February 8, just a week before Nicola Sturgeon resigned.’ Meanwhile for every one pound the SNP raised Scottish Labour and the Scottish Lib Dems received fifty…
Rishi’s summer and autumn of discontent
It is possible that a plethora of by election defeats in supposedly safe seats could see Sunak ousted before the next election, we could see three of these defeats later on this month and we could see a fourth soon. As the tweet above indicates Chris Pincher’s behaviour will be severely reprimanded. Majority wise Tamworth is a smaller numerical majority than Selby & Ainsty it would actually need a larger swing than Selby & Ainsty to see the Tories ousted…