My one WH2024 Republican nomination bet so far is on the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. That is pretty impressive CV. A big reason is that she is likely to do very well her own state’s primary which usually comes straight after Iowa and New Hampshire. If that happens then it’s likely she will be portrayed in the media as the frontrunner to take on Trump very early on in the…
There were two Braverman statements on Monday in the Commons. Only one of them really matters and it is not the one which has so exercised the commentariat. It is the Home Office’s formal response to the final report of IICSA and its 20 recommendations for an effective and comprehensive system for the protection of children from what the inquiry chair described as a “national epidemic” of abuse. The Inquiry was set up in March 2015 by Mrs May following…
As well as the regular general election voting intention polls we should not ignore the leader approval numbers and the latest weekly numbers from R&W sees both Sunak and Starmer taking a bit of a tumble. The big challenge for opposition leaders is getting their voice heard because inevitably they can only say things whereas the PM can do things that can be both a positive and a negative. I like the way R&W test this every week in its…
As can be seen in the Smarkets chart Biden has continued to rise in the WH2024 betting and the main limitation he faces is in relation to his own health. When the primaries start in early January he will be 81 and that is surely going to become an issue. It is increasingly likely in the eyes of punters that WH2024 will be a rematch of WH2024 with Biden facing Trump. All the polling has voters saying that Biden should…
The big political betting news today is that a by-election looks set to take place in the Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West which was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019. The Rutherglen and Hamilton West MP broke Covid rules in 2020 by traveling on a train from London to Scotland having tested positive. The standards watchdog recommended that she be banned from the Commons for 30 days – a punishment that has now been confirmed. This now leaves the…
It is becoming harder to see how the Home Secretary survives in her position following the revelations about her efforts to avoid a speeding ticket. The standard thing for drivers who are caught going over the limit is for them to either face a fine and three points on their licence or attend a special session on the dangers of going too fast. It is alleged that Braverman tried to get civil servants on her team to press for her…
Earlier on this week The Guardian reported that Conservatives need to recognise that elections are won on economics and public services rather than culture wars, Michael Gove has said in what will be seen as a rebuke to Suella Braverman. Addressing the National Conservatism (NatCon) conference in Westminster, a day after Braverman gave a highly partisan speech to the same event which condemned “experts and elites” and “political correctness”, Gove was at pains to make no direct criticism of the home secretary. But…
Recent revelations about SNP bookkeeping and motorhome buying have led to headlines about a sudden meltdown, but this is somewhat misleading. While their polling remained stable until late 2022 their position has looked increasingly precarious. The problem the SNP have is actually similar to the Tories. In 2019 (and 2021, for the SNP) they won massive victories with an implausibly broad coalition of voters focused around a key issue. For the Tories it was Brexit, for the SNP it was…