So how is this going to end?
Continuation thread Please do not make defamatory comments about Ms Pratt. Mike Smithson
When Gordon learned that the marginals were different
Does Rawnsley add to the case against the UNS? Tucked away in the Observer print edition of the Rawnsley book there are a couple of revealing passages which underline the case we’ve been making strongly on PB over the past fortnight on the Uniform National Swing – the simple way of estimating what given poll numbers mean in terms of commons seats at the election. On September 22nd 2007 Brown and his aides received a presentation on a marginals poll…
ComRes lead down to just 8 points
CON 38% (40) LAB 30% (29) LD 20% (21) And is Labour winning the Muslim vote? There’s a new ComRes poll which was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday shortly after the Gordon Brown TV extravaganza on ITV. It’s been commissioned by the think-tank, Theos, which as well as finding out about voting intentions also looks at the question of religious beliefs and the coming general election. The headline voting intentions are broadly in line with the pattern that we see…
The evening goes on
Twitter The Observer front page
Wow – what’s this going to do?
“..Sir Gus O’Donnell, the cabinet secretary, became so alarmed by the prime minister’s behaviour that he launched his own investigations when he received reports of Brown’s bullying of staff. O’Donnell then gave the prime minister a stern “pep talk†and ordered him to change his behaviour. “This is no way to get things done,†he told Brown. The revelation that the prime minister’s behaviour was so extreme that it triggered a warning from Whitehall’s most powerful official will shock the…
YouGov: Labour loses just one voter in 12 from 2005
CON 39% (39) LAB 33% (32) LD 17%(18) The Tories remain stable as the Labour share grows? If it’s Saturday it must be poll night and I’m aware of two that we could see in tomorrow’s papers and possibly a third. First up is YouGov’s daily poll which initially is running in the Tuesday to Friday editions of the Sun and the Sunday Times stepping up to seven days a week when the election is declared. An hour or so…
Do councillors matter more than Michael Ashcroft?
Commons Library Research – 2009 local elections Is it their resource that’s making the difference in the marginals? This is to highlight the excellent piece put up on PB2 a few hours ago by Bunnco – in his series of what might be causing the bigger swings in the marginals. For in his second look at the issue he suggests that the massive decline in Labour councillors in the key seats together with the corresponding increase in Tory ones might…
Could an early election still be on?
And if so, are the odds worth it? After the abject failure of the Hoon-Hewitt plot, I commented that Brown would definitely lead Labour into the election and that the election would be on May 6. My reasoning was that the almost complete lack of support that was evident for Hoon and Hewitt’s position made Brown unassailable: it not only demonstrated Brown’s then current strength but would also so discourage any future plots from even getting that far. With Brown…