CON 39% (39) LAB 32% (30) LD 18%(18) Here’s a poll to test the Andy Cooke analysis? The second YouGov daily tracker for the Sun is out and although the increase in the Labour share by 2 is well within the margin of error it does take us into what is clear hung parliament territory with the crude uniform national swing (UNS) seat calculators that simply apply a mathematical calculation in each seat to the 2005 result. This is going…
CON 40% (38) LAB 26% (25) LD 18% (20) But Labour gets its biggest AR share yet There’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll out this evening which shows both Labour and the Tories moving forward at the expense of the Lib Dems. The Labour share has continued the steady improvement from the 22% at the end of November. This evening’s 26% is the highest that the pollster has recorded since the PB/Angus Reid polling series began last October. Even though…
Research Director, Andy Morris, answers your questions (Every time there’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll a lot of comments are made here and elsewhere about the firm and I thought it useful if Andy Morris could write a post and be available to answer questions. A particular issue has been the lower Labour shares compared with other firms though it’s worth pointing out as well that since we started AR is the only pollster not to record a Tory share…
The Sun Get used to regular numbers every night Without much fanfare or advance warning the YouGov Daily Tracker for the Sun was launched overnight and shows a small deterioration in Labour’s position since the last published survey from the firm more than two and a half weeks ago. As can be seen the shares are CON 39%(+1): LAB 30%(-1): LD 18% (-1) – all within the margin of error but nothing to suggest that the much vaunted TV extravaganza…
UKPR I know a lot of people are getting a bit frustrated as they wait for the next poll. Hopefully something will come along quite soon. In the meantime I’ve reproduced all the polls for 2010 so far. Tomorrow Andy Morris, research director at Angus Reid, will be taking online questions. This will start after lunch. Mike Smithson
Will it be up, down, or about the same? A couple of weeks back Nick Palmer, MP, wrote that he was looking forward to reading my thoughts on turnout and the reason I’ve waited for so long is that, frankly, I’m only now forming a view. For the big thing about this election is that for only the second time in 31 years is there a serious chance of the ruling party losing power. That of itself adds an extra…
Could this be where power ends up resting? (Anybody who watched last week’s Question Time from Belfast would have been left in no doubt about the complexities and continuing tensions within Northern Ireland politics. With all sorts of different developments that could have an impact on the UK outcome I’ve asked long-standing PBer, Yokel, to give us a run-down. In this first part he looks at the big picture – then in future posts he’ll examine the eight critical seats….
I heard this evening that Downing Street is aware that it cannot rely on the strict UNS calculation that the Tories need a 10-11% gap in the popular vote just to ensure an overall majority. Clearly as the polls have got a bit tighter then all considerations have to be examined should Brown decide to do what he didn’t do in October 2007, call a general election when things looked favourable to his party. For the main point about going…