This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con Lab LD Oth Lead YouGov 17 Apr 33 30 29 8 Con 3 BPIX 17 Apr 31 28 32 9 LD 1 ComRes 17 Apr 31 27 29 13 Con 2 ICM…
Should we follow the old American “rule” There’s an old adage about US presidential elections which has been magnified since TV debates started in 1960 – the tallest contender generally ends up winning the election I wonder whether the affect could be happening here. Did Clegg’s stature give him an edge last Thursday night and might that be a good pointer to May 6th? Looking forward to the next debate Thursday PaddyPower has a tricast market – you forecast the…
Should the Tories play the immigration card? With the reverberations of the post-debate opinion polls dominating the political coverage there’s a lot of focus this morning on how Labour and the Tories deal with the new challenge. To me Andrew Rawnsley is on the right lines in the Observer. He writes: “Some Labour strategists have sounded happy to join the praise for his performance in the first bout. One of Gordon Brown’s senior aides cheerfully remarked to me on Friday…
YouGov daily poll Apr 17 Apr 16 CONSERVATIVES 33% 33% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 29% 30%  Labour back in second but just 4% between the Big Three Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems dropping back behind Labour but their 29% share is still an extremely strong showing and reconfirms the trend from all pollsters since the debate on Thursday. That these figures would produce a hung parliament is unarguable. Quite what the shape of that parliament would be…
BPIX – Mail on Sunday Apr 17 Apr 10 LIB DEMS 32% 20% CONSERVATIVES 31% 38% LABOUR 28% 31% According to reports on SkyNews the Mail on Sunday’s pollster, BPIX/YouGov, has the Lib Dems in the lead. This is a sensational development and will add further to the woes at Cameron Towers. BPIX/YouGov, as I say every-time a survey comes out, operates on the YouGov platform using the YouGov panel but, one assumes, has its own methodology. Alas the firm…
UPDATED ComRes: S Mirror & Indy on Sunday Apr 17 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 31% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 21% LABOUR 27% 29% ICM Sunday Telegraph Apr 15 Apr 11 CONSERVATIVES 34% 37% LIB DEMS 27% 20% LABOUR 29% 31% But can Labour rely on the UNS? The polling excitement continues with a second poll showing that the Lib Dems have over-hauled Labour to move into second place. Also there’s an ICM poll where the fieldwork was carried out before the…
Recalling Frank Luntz’s Newsnight focus group The events of the past 48 hours have reminded me of the above clip (click on the picture to play) of the Frank Luntz’s Newsnight focus group that was carried out in September 2008. Then Nick Clegg was an almost total unknown and yet when exposed to selected voters on the same footing as Brown and Cameron they responded in almost exactly the same way as that which we have seen since Thursday evening….
What about 50/1 to win most seats? This has been one of Nick Clegg’s better weeks in office. A generally acknowledged win in the first debate – held on an even footing with the other two party leaders, which itself was a bonus on the usual situation – was followed up by a lot of very favourable coverage and yesterday’s outstanding YouGov poll, placing the Lib Dems within a 2% swing of having the largest share. In sport, the phrase…