Is this how a swing to the LDs would go?

Is this how a swing to the LDs would go?

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At what stage should the animation stop? Philip Palfrey of the University of Sheffield has produced this animated graphic to illustrate how the political map of Britain could change depending on the level of swing to the Liberal Democrats. A key element here is that the map shows all constituencies as being the same geographical size. Philip has asked me to note that this work is based on data provided through EDINA UKBORDERS with the support of the ESRC and…

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… and ComRes has a 9-point Conservative lead

… and ComRes has a 9-point Conservative lead

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Is this a rogue or is the LD bounce running out of steam? ComRes ITV/Independent Apr 19 Apr 18 CONSERVATIVES 35% 32% LIB DEMS 26% 28% LABOUR 26% 28% So, here is the long-awaited sensational poll from ComRes, with the Conservatives now on a nine-point lead over both the other parties. As with all polls that break from the recent trend, is this an outlier, or the first indication that the Lib Dem bounce has slightly deflated and the Tories…

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But YouGov has the Lib Dems leading by three…

But YouGov has the Lib Dems leading by three…

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YouGov/The Sun Apr 20 Apr 19 LIB DEMS 34% 31% CONSERVATIVES 31% 33% LABOUR 26% 27% Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems in the sunlit uplands of the mid-thirties, three points ahead of the Tories and eight clear of Labour. How much higher would they need to go to become largest party – and can they secure anywhere near this kind of vote share on election day? Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk

Populus has Tories one point ahead

Populus has Tories one point ahead

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Populus/The Times Apr 20 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 32% 36% LIB DEMS 31% 21% LABOUR 28% 33% Fieldwork was carried out yesterday evening and this morning, and confirms the continuing Lib Dem bounce, with Clegg’s party up 10 points, Labour down five, and the Conservatives down four at 32. Peter Riddell comments in The Times: “The Lib Dem rise has been particularly fuelled by younger voters since last Thursday’s party leaders’ debate, while there are indications that the debate may boost…

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What if Clegg can persuade us that he’s winning?

What if Clegg can persuade us that he’s winning?

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The conditional voting intention finding from YouGov “How would you vote if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning..?” (YouGov – April 19 2010) Apr 19 LIB DEMS 49% CONSERVATIVES 25% LABOUR 19% Meanwhile – the first of tonight’s polls – from PB/Angus Reid Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Apr 20 Apr 19 CONSERVATIVES 32% 32% LIB DEMS 33% 32% LABOUR 23% 24% Mike Smithson

How many Lib Dems will be sitting here next month?

How many Lib Dems will be sitting here next month?

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Will cabinet seats be the price of a deal? The new political betting exchange Political Smarkets has put up an intriguing new bet – how many Lib Dems will be full Cabinet ministers on June 1st. There are four options, none, one, two and three or more. The firm prices its bets as percentages which after you have got used to it looks sensible – after all many punters tend to rate chances in this way before betting. The none…

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Is it time to be reconsidering turnout?

Is it time to be reconsidering turnout?

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Will levels be much higher than last time? My view on turnout has, for some time, been that it’s going to see quite an uplift from the 61% of 2005. At the last two elections the outcome was always a foregone conclusion and there was never any sense that change might come about. A fortnight tomorrow things will be different. A change is a real possibility and even at this late stage it’s not possible to predict the outcome. Voters,…

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Is a myth being created about the impact of the debate?

Is a myth being created about the impact of the debate?

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Did the move to the Lib Dems start much earlier? It is almost becoming a short-hand to describe this election. The two party fight became a three-sided contest at 10pm on Thursday April 15th when the first polling reaction to the first leaders’ debate had Nick Clegg winning by a mile. No doubt this is how the dramatic Election of 2010 will go down in political history – but is it actually true? Didn’t the move to the yellow team…

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