Sean Fear: “What’s happened to the Tory right?”

Sean Fear: “What’s happened to the Tory right?”

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Republished Why aren’t they in open revolt? There is a widespread view that the Right of the Conservative Party loathe the Coalition with the Liberal Democrats, after the Conservatives’ failure to win an overall majority on May 6th, and will be looking to break up the Coalition as soon as they can. Certainly, Right wing Conservatives have gained fewer ministerial posts than they could have expected, had the Party won enough seats to govern on its own. Likewise, cherished policies…

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Will the coalition end 10 months today?

Will the coalition end 10 months today?

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What’ll the LDs do if the referendum is lost? Precisely ten months from today we’ll be getting the results of the referendum on the AV voting system – that’s assuming that the necessary legislation gets through unscathed and, of course, nothing happens in the meantime that causes the coalition to splinter. Given that Labour seems to be edging towards opposition and the lack of enthusiasm from the Tories then the chance of it being approved don’t look good. What then…

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How the coalition has shifted 2nd preferences

How the coalition has shifted 2nd preferences

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Would Labour be hurt most? Some interesting YouGov data this evening on how the creation of the coalition has shifted second preference choices – something that could be crucial if AV did come in. Not surprisingly Labour supporters are now less likely to opt for the Lib Dems while the yellows are more favourably disposed to the blues. There are, of course, fewer Lib Dem supporters now compared with the general election. Mike Smithson

So what do we think?

So what do we think?

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How much of the reform programme will get through? Nick Clegg has just made his statement on the electoral reform package which contains a few surprises and some measures that were heavily trailed. Jack Straw responded forcefully for Labour and we saw the first part of his thinking on how they might try to oppose what was in Labour’s manifesto – the commitment to a referendum on AV. This is going to be tricky for Labour The plan is for…

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Could AV end up destroying the Lib Dems?

Could AV end up destroying the Lib Dems?

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2010 seats with AV AV Actual CONSERVATIVES 282 307 LABOUR 262 258 LIB DEMS 79 57 SNP/PC 8 9 OTH/NI 19 19 Would the new system favour the big two? The table is one of a number of projections that have been made on what the outcome of the 2010 general election would have been if it had been held with the Alternative Vote electoral system. The numbers, from Rawnsley’s piece in the Observer, are based on polling data to…

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The AV thread

The AV thread

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I’ve taken it down because I’m not confident about my interpretation of the figures on which it was based. I’m on holiday and don’t have access to my notes. Apologies. Mike Smithson

How untouchable is International Development?

How untouchable is International Development?

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Can the ‘no cuts’ line really be sustained? Going in to the election, the Conservatives made a commitment that the NHS and International Development budgets would be protected from any cuts that had to be made should they form a government, a commitment that has carried over into the coalition. To many Conservatives, these didn’t look like the most obvious departments to make the priority. That no doubt was partly the point – to soften the party’s image and to…

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