No, you haven’t logged on to the wrong forum (well, maybe – only you know for sure). Sometime next year I expect the broadcasters will be brushing the dust off their swingometers, giving them a fresh lick of paint, and oiling the needle pivot in readiness for the long-awaited General Election. I have a tip for broadcasters: “You’re gonna need a bigger dial”. The current Labour lead averages about 18-19%. At the last election the Tories won by 11.7%. Unless…
Are the Tories fooling themselves? There are a lot of reports around at the moment about how the Tories think they can fight the election by going negative against Starmer. We see this in Sunak’s regular efforts at PMQs when he tries to make Starmer’s role while working for the then LAB leader, Corbyn, into an issue. Only problem is that there is no evidence yet that this is going to work. It all reminds me of the Tory efforts…
This looks set to be one of the big political betting markets as we move into 2024. When is Sunak going to take the gamble and call an election? As can be seen the current second favourite is April-June next year. So this would be about the same time as the 2024 locals. I’m not so sure. Unless there is dramatic change in the polls I cannot see Sunak taking the gamble. He’ll want to hang on in case something…
December 2023 December 2022 The Tories aren’t catching up and time is running out
The above is from the dataset of YouGov’s latest national voting poll for the Times and the group I focus upon are the responses to the second set of data. This shows the responses when the don’t knows are included. The particular part that I am looking at most is the column showing what 2019 Conservative voters and now saying and as can be seen fewer than 40% of those who backed Boris Johnson’s party in December 2019 are certain…
With just a month to go before the first Primary in the 2024 presidential election, there has been a clear move in the GOP nomination betting to Nikki Haley the former governor of South Carolina. The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance which compares with Haley’s current rating of a 10% chance. But there is no one else in this apart from…
But can LAB really make 124 seat gains? Above is a trend chart showing the betting over nearly two years on the outcome of the next election. It is very hard with LAB poll leads of 20%+ to argue with the markets but this is not a bet I would place. Those of us old enough to remember GE1992 are very wary about polls and for things can move during a campaign. More recently we all recall how TMay’s certain…